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Comment by pessimizer | Hacker News Reader

They're sham elections because any election being held by an occupying force about wanting to join the occupying force cannot be shown to be without coercion, even with international observers. Especially after the discoveries from Bucha, Izium and other places.

On top of that, there's the fact that large portions of the residents were forced out by the war, especially the residents inclined towards Ukraine. So the fact that they don't get a say also makes these elections a joke.

International observers recognized this, thus they refused to oversee the elections. It's a pretty shrewd move to request international observers, since if they had accepted they would've appeared to be giving Russia legitimacy (regardless of what they said) and by refusing they've given Russia the ability to claim to useful idiots that they were trying to act in good faith by asking for international oversight but the West was acting in bad faith.

"large portions of the residents were forced out by the war, especially the residents inclined towards Ukraine"

This is the first sensible answer to a question I asked elsewhere (only to be down-voted for asking a question) about why the insistence on the referendums being a sham. Much of the Ukraine-inclined population fled. Much of the Russia-inclined remained. So the post-invasion vote is heavily pro-Russian.

While the explanation is relevant to this recent election, it doesn't apply to the earlier referendums which have all been denounced as illegitimate by Kyiv and the West. The first (but not only) referendums for independence from Kyiv were in 1991 in Crimea and 2014 in Donbas.

with regards to 1991 referendum in crimea, i pretty sure that according to local laws it was kind of unlawful. same applies to 2014 (in which you don't even know what was the turnout and people who were against were disappearing to be found dead later).

you can kinda say that crimea 1991 referendum maybe had a chance on been kinda legal because it was autonomous republic inside Ukraine, but what happens in Donbas is similar to this https://ktla.com/news/nexstar-media-wire/nationworld/more-or... . You just need to add an armored company from Idaho taking over counties/sheriff department and then holding a votes to see absurdity of the situation

What were the voting results in those prior referendums?

Politics in eastern Ukraine was messy even before the breakup of the USSR, and nobody was an objective observer, so take everything with a grain of salt.

20 January 1991: Crimea 93.6% to join Russia

16 March 2014: Crimea 96.77% for independence

May 2014: Donetsk 89% for autonomy

May 2014: Lugansk 96% for autonomy

I pulled these numbers from a new book[1], which is in French, but there is already a rough English translation floating around. It is well footnoted with URLs.

[1] https://books.google.com/books/about/Operation_Z.html?id=PYW...

> I pulled these numbers from a new book[1], which is in French, but there is already a rough English translation floating around. It is well footnoted with URLs. [1] https://books.google.com/books/about/Operation_Z.html?id=PYW...

Jacques Baud who wrote that book which you used for the numbers has a history of pushing pro kremlin points and has been on Russian state TV in the past. I wouldn’t consider him reliable on this topic.

If you want to read a good article on Jacques baud the following is a good analysis.

https://dailysceptic.org/archive/how-accurate-is-jacques-bau...

Baud didn't invent those numbers I quoted. I could have cited a different book, but this was at hand.

I'm well aware of Baud's writings and his military career. I do have issues with his intellectual honesty, but I think he is in no sense a mouthpiece of Moscow. His driving motivation seems to be not pro-Russia, but anti-USA, which is not so unusual for a Frenchman (Swiss). That article you linked is itself rather dishonest, raising issues and then sidestepping Baud's version of the story.

The reason you haven't got a good answer is quite frankly this question doesn't actually deserve an answer. If you were my friend asking it would be sufficient alone for me to stop speaking to you. My visceral reaction is to suppose it is inherently insincere. It's like when someone asks if the holocaust actually happened. Then I remember that even late in the game not everyone has been following the news and thus I will answer it more completely.

Years ago Russian began supplying guns tanks and soldiers to local thugs on the idea that if they betrayed their own countrymen they could have their own Russia supported fiefdom in their part of Ukraine. About 8 years were spent with the region as an active war zone with those who were opposed to the idea fleeing to regions that were not then besieged.

As the full scale invasion began the Russians began purging wrong thinking folks setting up filtration aka concentration camps to torture and murder those deemed disloyal or to be possessed of actionable intel.

So the people that outright shot your 2 of your 5 brothers, tortured the rest, raped your sister and mother show up at your door with guns and tell you that you really ought to vote to join Russia. Meanwhile your brothers with bullets in their heads don't get to vote nor do the 17 members of your extended family that were smart enough to flee and you fear that if you vote the wrong way if they don't outright shoot you right now they might hold it against your cousin who is still in a Russian concentration camp and start cutting on him some more.

Meanwhile if you and all your countrymen stand up and vote against the fourth reich the Russian government is still free to report whatever results they please.

because

- only 2 of those regions broke away in 2014 and not 4

- more than half of the population run away either in 2014 of this year

- one of those regions only 1/3 to 1/2 under control of russia but they claim sovereignty over entire regions

- 2 of those regions were captured by russia 6 months ago

- voter participation is extremely low. For example I saw numbers that in Kherson region voted 34k people out of 1m population (most probably run away)

- same happened in Zaporizhzhia. More than half of population of Zaporizhzhia region is located in Zaporizhzhia and it's suburbs that are under ukrainian control

- because there are plenty of videos showing empty ballots been counted by person that doesn't even look at them as they take them out of the box

- military personal walking around with "referendum committee" and bunch of reports that people that voted "no" had their documents taken away and those ballots thrown away.

- 97% "yes" vote, totally not suspicious

Clearly you have zero exposure or familiarity with people or the area or the current circumstances.

Do you think that Ukrainians, having been exposed to the direct torture, rape, looting, wanton destruction of property, and various other war crimes, are blaming Ukraine for this?!

Even the most brain washed by Russian propaganda eventually have their eyes opened by the reality of occupation.

Armed soldiers accompanying pollsters from door to door are perhaps the platonic form of free and fair elections.

The "sham" is in the process.

If you want to hold a proper referendum, there's broadly-agreed ways to do this.

What appears to be happening in these regions is anything but a proper referendum.

In the current situation, how do you even arrange a free election even if you wanted to?

At no time prior to the illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2014 did Russian speaking regions in Ukraine express any interesting in becoming part of Ukraine. Russia paid mercenaries to infiltrate Ukrainian regions and make it look like there was a dispute. Of course these Russian mercenaries committed the atrocities Russia blames on Ukraine. There is nothing trustworthy about Russia. They've torn up all prior agreements just for border expansion and subjugation. Long term peace in the world isn't going to happen without decolonizing Russia.

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