> RUptured
Hard to believe, they have nothing to gain from this.
Hard to believe, they have nothing to gain from this.
Story from 2018: https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/about-40000-ukrain...
So many seem to have just swallowed anything and everything the US propaganda has put out this year and know absolutely nothing about the last 10 years of Ukrainian history.
From last year, Drone strikes and violation of the Minks Agreements by Ukraine: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine%E2%80%99s-recen...
Russia's invasion does seem absolutely batshit unless you do even 10 minutes of digging on the subject: https://search.brave.com/search?q=ukraine+donbass&source=web...
There are Russians in Ukraine and Russia is fighting for them. How is that irrational? You can argue they're wrong to do it, or that they shouldn't. But irrational? Nonsense.
Are Ukrainians all saints, souls pure as the driven snow? Clearly not. Certainly not significantly better (or worse) than Russians. Similar people, similar politics, similar ethics. Their country is just as corrupt, if not more so. Their politics is just as dirty. They have their right-wing white nationalists the same as Russia. They killed people in the Donbass for a decade, yes.
But who invaded in 2014? Russia.
Who invaded in 2022? Russia.
Your argument is a lot like saying that the police in Iran are killing women "for a reason".
This is the same they did with the "repairs" for NS1 which stopped gas to Germany for few weeks (or months I don't remember exactly).
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/28/nord-stream-pipelin...
1) They are running out of time on this war of aggression, and this will force gas price action NOW, not in December. They can sell gas through other pipelines to the EU if it accepts it.
2) Norway just TODAY inaugurated a new pipeline to the EU. Norway has warned about unaccounted-for drone activity around it's oil and gas fields. Russia is likely sending a message: "Nice pipeline you have there - it's be a shame if something happened to it".
3) Russia has favorable actors planted in just about every western democracy, and some of them are already tweeting accusations against the US. As long as the Russians can keep suspicion off of them with reasoning like "what motive do they have?" and "somebody else must have done it", it works very much to their advantage in undermining opposition to their war of aggression.
In contrast, this is the last thing the administrations in the US or Germany need. They need stability and moderation of gas prices. Their methods are not to create chaos and try to take advantage. That is Russia's standard modus operandi.
So, yes, Russia has the biggest motives of anyone. They also have the means with extensive submarine capabilities, and ports on the Baltic Sea.
> We actually did do this 40 years ago. Reagan covertly blew up a Soviet gas pipeline supplying Europe in 1982, which was publicized in 2004 when the former Secretary of the Air Force boasted about it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r... ("Reagan Approved Plan to Sabotage Soviets" (2004))
- "At the time, the United States was attempting to block Western Europe from importing Soviet natural gas. There were also signs that the Soviets were trying to steal a wide variety of Western technology. Then, a KGB insider revealed the specific shopping list and the CIA slipped the flawed software to the Soviets in a way they would not detect it."
- "In order to disrupt the Soviet gas supply, its hard currency earnings from the West, and the internal Russian economy, the pipeline software that was to run the pumps, turbines, and valves was programmed to go haywire, after a decent interval, to reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to pipeline joints and welds," Reed writes."
Possibly the first software supply-chain attack in history? Before the term even existed.
Also note that this was not a kinetic/physical attack, and this sabotage almost surely was kinetic/physical.
The key factors in thinking about is so are are that 1) it's much more important for the US to maintain stable/low prices, and 2) Norway is already investigating drone activity over it's oil/gas fields, and this happens the same day as Norway announces their new pipeline opening.
[0] https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-In...
> Portions of the operation have been disclosed earlier, including in a 1996 paper in Studies in Intelligence, a CIA journal.
However
1) Was there any gas flowing at all? Sure anything can cause speculation.
2) This also makes it a convenient timing for the western allies to do it, including Norway. Germany is way too complacent with Russian for US liking.
3) Such more so the US in terms of operatives in Europe and Russia. Who says the US is sensitive to gas prices in Europe?
Also Biden said they would do it. And at this point capabilities are not laking in either side.
But no we're not going to know for sure for a while.
The US was already somewhat sensitive to global NatGas prices even before they recently permitted exports. Since we started permitting exports of NatGas, and are now actively sending all we physically can to support EU, it definitely affects both heating and electrical costs in the US, and the economy and political climate is very sensitive to those inputs.
The Great Experiment — the idea that exchange and trade would bring democracy to authoritarian states — has failed so far and only empowered authoritarian states (in the medium term, at least). Authoritarian states simply found ways to route around it, and see democracy as the key threat to their existence. for example, the very existence of a free and democratic Ukraine threatens Putin's administration because the Russian people can see that one of the former USSR states being free is doing much better - raises dissatsfaction.
On the gas situation, the US cannot begin to supply enough to Europe as there are not enough ships and terminals in the world. Dependence on US gas has only slightly increased, and EU NatGas imports aren't a significant contributor to US GDP, but ARE a significant contributor to inflation. This is the last thing the US administration needs right now, and it would also be seen as a massive escalation, which the US is obviously avoiding.
Increased uncertainty today benefits only one party in the world, and that is the Russian leader.
This is a myth. Go here[0] and choose any year you want in the URL. Russia was doing much much better than Ukraine at pretty much any point in the last 15 years in terms of GDP per capita.
I mean, even Belarus was doing better.