Ah! It seems your crystal ball is working better than mine. Could you tell me how you know a bigger crash is coming?
I guess all of those billionaire investors are total idiots thinking about the future without crystal balls.
Yes, please give me your misunderstanding of EMH to prove to me I'm wrong. I'll wait.
Ray Dalio got famous and rich specifically designing investment strategies because he didn’t believe in a crystal ball.
I’m genuinely curious which investors you are talking about where choosing where market indexes will be is their investment thesis.
None of the strategies I saw at my time there had anything to do with accurately predicting specific market levels. Quite the opposite they were largely off market positions for the main component with the occasional hedge on the market.
It's some variation on
1) "there's no alpha over time, only someone with a crystal ball can make money on any directional play besides line go up" to which I'd say
a) While most people can't generate alpha over time a, the idea that no one can is empirically wrong.
b)if you worked at some bizarro world macro hedge fund where no one has any interest in making educated guesses about market direction and is running some kind of medallion / bridgewater strict beta/correlation strategy (how is that macro? doing that in FX, EM equity or international debt? I wouldn't call a medallion type strategy on EM stocks a global macro strategy ) (also bridgewater clearly incorporates directional opinions based on nuanced understanding of history, geopolitics, cycle timing on top of their core strategies, so I'd say you're wrong in the case of Dalio)
Anyway, that's all to say, I find the "you have no right/validity to talk about where you think markets are heading without a crystal ball" (ie no one should waste time discussing it ever) is not only condescending but as I said, just not correct or clever.
I will finally say that of course there are huge numbers of people having very unintelligent conversations where they throw shit at the wall in terms of market predictions, but you can't judge any activity on people doing it badly, even if that's a large percentage of people in this case
Is fairly specifically indicating a dramatic change in market level. More specifically it’s calling out that the person expressing an opposite opinion is definitively wrong about the magnitude of a future market move.
I think it’s fair to ask at that point how the person can be so definitive “without a crystal ball”.
Macro hedge funds wouldn’t invest that way (at least not in my experience). They’d risk weight their positions based on a variety of outcomes, even if all of them are directionally the same, and then hedge their downside risk if they are directionally wrong.