"Post" crash? If you think what we've seen is the crash you have no idea what's coming.
Currently Nikola motors is worth a few billion. In a crash they'd be dead.
I wouldn't call it a crash if there is positive irrationality.
I can see it now: "Life sucks because of the crash? Move to the Metaverse!"
You propose that's not what a crash is. What is it then? And when can we say it's as severe as the early 2000s crash?
Look: right now the S&P500 and the Dow are still twice where they were in 2016, and the Nasdaq is almost 3 times. Even after the recent drop. Do we have double the population we did in 2016? Double the resources? Double the technology? If not then why is the stock market twice as high?
My guess is, (and it's only a guess): the nasdaq will bottom out around 5000, the S&P somewhere around 2000. The Dow in the neighborhood of 15k. That's assuming there are no financial collapses like in 2008.
But it will take years to get there.
One easy answer is that the "value" of a dollar is half what it recently was. And that seems to hold fairly true whether you want to use that dollar to buy groceries, a house, a hotel room or a share of a company.
If I measure my investments not in dollars but in say, days of vacation (so hotel, food, gas/airfare, tickets to things, etc) then my S&P500 investment is about where it was in 2016.
Taken literally, it is true :) None of us know what is going to happen.
Personally, I think it won't be the crash that will hurt more, but the time it will take for recovery. Anyone who has invested money in something, gets impatient with no growth for a long time following a crash that resulted in a loss for them.
Dotcom crash the Nasdaq dropped 78%. No one really knows what'll happen now though.
The put options that I closed out based on my correct prediction that the market would drop literally the day after I posted this would disagree.
Additionally since the Fed meeting and the subsequent market drop that general consensus has shifted pretty rapidly towards agreeing more with me than not.
I still think the market is even more optimistic than it realizes.
It's not doomerism, its reality: we're still in an insane asset bubble that has been propped up by a decade of insanely low interest rates and cheap money. Various conditions around the world are causing rapid inflation which is forcing central banks to raise interest rates ending the era of cheap money. The market sentiment remains convinced that this will a temporary hike, not going much about 4-5% and decreasing rapidly, however there is plenty of economic analysis that indicates this does not make sense.
I guess all of those billionaire investors are total idiots thinking about the future without crystal balls.
Yes, please give me your misunderstanding of EMH to prove to me I'm wrong. I'll wait.
Ray Dalio got famous and rich specifically designing investment strategies because he didn’t believe in a crystal ball.
I’m genuinely curious which investors you are talking about where choosing where market indexes will be is their investment thesis.
None of the strategies I saw at my time there had anything to do with accurately predicting specific market levels. Quite the opposite they were largely off market positions for the main component with the occasional hedge on the market.
It's some variation on
1) "there's no alpha over time, only someone with a crystal ball can make money on any directional play besides line go up" to which I'd say
a) While most people can't generate alpha over time a, the idea that no one can is empirically wrong.
b)if you worked at some bizarro world macro hedge fund where no one has any interest in making educated guesses about market direction and is running some kind of medallion / bridgewater strict beta/correlation strategy (how is that macro? doing that in FX, EM equity or international debt? I wouldn't call a medallion type strategy on EM stocks a global macro strategy ) (also bridgewater clearly incorporates directional opinions based on nuanced understanding of history, geopolitics, cycle timing on top of their core strategies, so I'd say you're wrong in the case of Dalio)
Anyway, that's all to say, I find the "you have no right/validity to talk about where you think markets are heading without a crystal ball" (ie no one should waste time discussing it ever) is not only condescending but as I said, just not correct or clever.
I will finally say that of course there are huge numbers of people having very unintelligent conversations where they throw shit at the wall in terms of market predictions, but you can't judge any activity on people doing it badly, even if that's a large percentage of people in this case
Is fairly specifically indicating a dramatic change in market level. More specifically it’s calling out that the person expressing an opposite opinion is definitively wrong about the magnitude of a future market move.
I think it’s fair to ask at that point how the person can be so definitive “without a crystal ball”.
Macro hedge funds wouldn’t invest that way (at least not in my experience). They’d risk weight their positions based on a variety of outcomes, even if all of them are directionally the same, and then hedge their downside risk if they are directionally wrong.
Not happening. The current rate raises are done to control inflation, and not to reverse it. Some prices will stay that high because of inflation. Some prices have already went down but you can't see it: also because of inflation.
Sorry, but the Fed had already robbed you, and you are unlikely to get your money back.