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Comment by phpthrowaway99 | Hacker News Reader

In the previous crash, even viable companies that were growing and made sense were brought close to crisis.

Currently Nikola motors is worth a few billion. In a crash they'd be dead.

Your attitude isn't unique, I'd describe it as "It's not a crash until the people/companies I consider fraudulent get destroyed." I hear it about some crypto investors in particular. There's a lot of people who basically consider recessions cosmic justice and want a cleansing fire to reign down on certain entities/people they despise. I propose: that's not what a recession/crash is.

I would assume in a real crash, especially if we're comparing it to the 2000s tech crash, someone must get destroyed. I personally think companies that can't even make a car drive for a demo, something most at home diy ev hobby builders can do, and also lie about it, probably would go first in a crash.

You propose that's not what a crash is. What is it then? And when can we say it's as severe as the early 2000s crash?

I just think of a crash as a sudden drop in asset values, we've seen that so far. A recession I think of as negative GDP growth for a couple quarters at least (i know i know but this is a reasonable definition and you know it) which we've also seen so far. So this is a crash/recession. It doesn't mean it will necessarily wipe out X. I don't know why it has to be as severe as Dotcom or Housing crashes. Doesn't seem to be a requirement to me. It has been incredibly severe for unprofitable tech companies looking for VC funding to keep them going indefinitely at least.

"It's not a crash until the people/companies I consider viable and fundamentally sound get destroyed."

That just means the market is illogical though, does not mean a crash must mean all of sudden all investors are logical? As quoted by the famous Keynes, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” It’s like meme stocks like AMC/APE and GME. Does any of it make sense to me? Nope. Are people making and losing a ton of money? Sure. Is it a good indication of US economy health or dare I say, US stock market health? Really hard to say.

I guess I would say that a crash is when the market shifts to being illogical towards the negative side, where even seemingly good companies are struggling.

I wouldn't call it a crash if there is positive irrationality.

Nobody will want to even mention metaverse if there is a crash

Well I'll go on record predicting the opposite. Meta is an advertising behemoth and has taken a very big bet on metaverse, they can ensure unlimited good press for their baby, especially if their real customers aren't buying as many ads as before.

I can see it now: "Life sucks because of the crash? Move to the Metaverse!"

You are a terrible predictor of futures

Nikola is 50% down from pre-covid IPO, and -93% from Covid peak.. Even a bad business has assets, and could make some money selling something or getting acquired for basic competencies.

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