> all else equal?

Reality is never all else equal.

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> Are you implying that it's impossible to draw such a conclusions from particular events such as those of 2020?

That's not my claim at all. In fact I've invited the person to link me to their article explaining their analysis of 2020 and why it would lead to inflation in 2022. My point is strictly that people always claim that X is going to cause inflation and then just wait until inflation occurs to say "Aha, X does cause inflation" while doing 0 analysis to show that it was X as opposed to literally any other reason.