Feeling wronged gives Russia no right to trample on the sovereignty of 40 million Ukrainians - who wanted to join NATO of their own free will.
Anyway.
It's pretty clear he thought he would just roll in and take over Ukraine in the first month, the West seemed to think so too. Now thats not true and it's clearly a mistake what are his options? Withdrawal and losing is likely to end up with him dead, maybe his family too. Keeping at it MIGHT still see him win the day, especially if energy prices in Europe keep sky rocketing and their commitment gets shaky, doubly so if the United States has another decrease in GDP next cycle and rethinks foreign aid.
What decision points does Putin have right now that maximize his personal survival and that of his family? Whats the obvious play that Im missing? Sometimes you make mistakes and your only options are to double down and hope it works out or accept the defeat. The defeat in this case will prove terminal, so its a non option for him.
I think the number one reason he doesn't quit, is not fear of being killed, it is the damage quitting would do to his ego and reputation. Is death the thing that scares Putin the most? Maybe, his reputation is more important to him than his life.
And if he really wanted to go, I'm sure some Middle Eastern country would be happy to grant him asylum, where he would be quite safe from anyone who wanted to physically harm him. Safety for his family could easily be arranged as well.
I also don't think he would be safe at all in any country. Russia has openly poisoned people in Great Britain, you think they would care about some Middle Eastern country? And it's likely Russia who would go after him. And people would laugh and say it's just desserts, even people in the international community. What bribes can he grant once he is out of power that would make people want to protect him? Only thing I could see is if he gave nuclear weapons to some countries in violation of the Nuclear Proliferation treaties in exchange for protection.
- Russia is a Superpower - Superpowers have a “natural right” to a sphere of influence - therefore Russia has a right to a sphere of influence.
- In Russia’s view, Ukraine is within their sphere of influence. - therefore Ukraine has no right to sovereignty, and certainly not to join adversarial alliances. - in fact, according to current Russian doctrine, *the Ukrainian people has no right to even choose its own government* if their choice is a government that is not an ally of Russia’s.
This is of course a completely monstrous view of history and nations and it allows for no space for - y’know - Ukrainians to have any say.
You can justify any monstrosity by saying “well Germany is a superpower and it deserves the right to determine its neighbor’s futures”.
And of course this is all nested in the old adage “Well the US did it too - in Iraq/Cuba/Chile/whatever” which is just a fallacy not worth the words it contains.
This is however predicated on multiple levels of completely nonsense. The best explanation I’ve seen is Stephen Kottkin on Lex Friedman’s podcast.
The war happened. It's here. Now let's deal with it. Putin trying to kill my friends in Ukraine is pretty black and white to me.
Washington's goal is to become the defacto supplier of gas and oil to Europe and cut Russia right out of the market thereby crippling them financially. And the War in Ukraine helps to deplete Russia's military strength.
This is a dangerous game as Washington is gambling that Putin won't go Nuclear even if he's losing. Moreover, so far it's just succeeded into driving Russia into the arms of China, making China stronger. In addition, the gas war threatens to cripple Germany's economy and hence the EU. How long will Europeans back this war?
Putin was a fool as he took Washington's bait. Instead of War he maybe could've threatened to cut off EUs supply of gas. IDK. Ukrainian people are the biggest losers.
The US would be perfectly content not doing so - in fact this only happened because Russia has committed a monstrous war of aggression.
The US had no say in becoming Europe’s gas supplier. It happened because Europe’s preferred gas supplier is a criminal state.
The US is a hegemonic superpower, it most definitely has a say on who Europe gets its gas from. NATO is the USA. Let's not kid ourselves. That's GeoPolitics, that's RealPolitik. USA would most definitely like to supply it's surplus oil and gas to Europe.
Criminal state? What about the shelling of the Donbass for 8 years? Ukraine is one of the most, if not the most, corrupt countries in Europe.