Russia remains a nuclear power. NATO should be and is careful.
I agree they know they can’t win but they now need an exit ramp. That’s what I personally read in their posture.
It would probably be wise to give them one.
I agree they know they can’t win but they now need an exit ramp. That’s what I personally read in their posture.
It would probably be wise to give them one.
I'm really not sure what else people who say this mean.
The alternative is escalation and that doesn’t seem to end well. It might be what the USA wants - they are unlikely to be the ones nuked after all but Europe would be bearing the most of it and that’s not something I wish.
You understand he will do it again and again, until he cannot or he is dead. Lets work on the former part for now by draining his military of any capabilities.
The alternative isn't escalation, it's what we've seen to date: a long, grinding war.
There are plenty of things to be negotiated here: the lifting of economic sanctions, what happen to Crimea and the Black Sea port, how far will Ukraine integration into the EU go and how fast.
I don’t understand what the USA is aiming for in Ukraine. The American media have generally been far more bellicist than they usually are for foreign regional conflicts since even before the invasion. There is something at play which I don’t entirely grasp.
This should be only between Ukraine and EU.
Appeasement rarely works.
The problem with your line of thinking is that Russia needs to lose. It's citizens need to understand that it has lost. Germany after WWI didn't and it gave rise to the stab in the back myth and nationalism. If Russia is allowed to spin anything as a victory here, it and it's citizens would learn nothing and it will just be a truce. Not to mention how extremely unfair would be to deny Ukraine it's integrity to placate Russia, a violent genocidal invader.
Nuclear countries must not be allowed to take what they want and threaten nuclear destruction if anyone tries to stop them.
That would be a terrible outcome.
The reverse of what you are writing actually happened at the end of WW1 by the way. Germany definitely understood they lost. They were humiliated, were dragged to Versailles to sign an armistice treaty and had to pay an insane reparation amount. That’s what gave rise to nationalism.
Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is greatly reduced. Its standing on the international scene forever diminished.
There is no point in dragging them in the mud further than strictly necessary. Why back them in a corner to the point they are tempted to do the unthinkable?
Technically the armistice is in Compiègne, the peace treaty is in Versailles (as revenge for the proclamation of the German empire there after the Franco-Prussian war), but yes, however
> Germany definitely understood they lost.
This is false. Germans were getting glorious victories propaganda up until Ludendorff said they can't win, and threw the hot potato at the Kaiser and a civilian government was formed to seek a peace. So from a citizen's perspective, there were privations but they were winning until suddenly there's a civilian government, communist rebels and we have surrendered (to be later humiliated). Germany wasn't occupied. The German people didn't understand they lost, really, and why. Hence Ludendorff's stab in the back myth and nationalism proliferated.
> Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is greatly reduced. Its standing on the international scene forever diminished.
But Russians don't know that because they're being fed propaganda to the opposite effect. So if today Putin declares withdrawal, Russian people won't know what happened and why, so we'll be back at it in a few years time.
The point isn't to make Russia suffer for the humiliation, but Russians need to understand they've lost and all the horrors they've inflicted while losing. And yes, they should pay for it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Polish_protests
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1976_protests
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Lublin_strikes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerzy_Popie%C5%82uszko#Assassi...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Polish_strikes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solidarity_(Polish_trade_union...
Similar things were happening in Czechoslovakia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velvet_Revolution and other European countries under Soviet occupation.
If they want a future they have to fight for it.