I see. So whenever monthly inflation goes up, it's transitory, and when it doesn't, there is no inflation.
Meanwhile, prices on a lot of things I buy doubled.
Meanwhile, prices on a lot of things I buy doubled.
No, when consumer prices (not inflation) goes up, there is inflation, and when they don’t, as they have not (overall) in the last two months, there isn't. That’s the definition of inflation.
> Meanwhile, prices on a lot of things I buy doubled.
So... assuming that's over a 12-month period, there are some things that you buy that have been affected vastly more by inflation than even the highest overall sector of the CPI (fuel oil, +68.8% over 12 months.)
Not sure what general importance you want assigned to this or why.
Inflation follows the money printing with a lag of around 13 months. The government just printed a trillion dollars to erase student loan debt. Get ready for another round of inflation. Also the "Inflation Reduction Act", another free-spending bill which will add another chunk to inflation.
No, it doesn’t. At least, the present administration hasn't been.
> When inflation is rising rapidly, they push annual inflation figures. When inflation is moderating, they push monthly figures.
The present administration has been fairly consistently focusing on the monthly 12-month trailing figure, which has also been the headline number for, well, ever.
> Inflation follows the money printing with a lag of around 13 months.
Looking at the history of monetary policy changes, QE rounds, and monthly inflation rates, there’s absolutely no support for that at all.
Look at the money supply changes layered over inflation.
If you want to convince us, you're going to have to do more than just say "look at the data" and repeat your previous point. Specifically what data are you looking at, and over what time frame, and how do you think it demonstrates your position?
None of your argument supports that it isn't calculated honestly, just that you don't like the particular choices. And it doesn't help that you misrepresent them.
> For example, Owner’s Equivalent Rent is used, not actual rent that many families are struggling to pay.
Actual rent is used for renters. Owner’s equivalent rent (imputed rent) is used instead of asset purchase costs to assess the consumption cost of housing separate from the cost of acquiring a durable asset for homeowners.
> In addition, the Fed’s core inflation number is ex food and energy prices, which is also misleading.
The headline number is the full CPI, not core CPI. Core CPI is also reported, and may be used for some purposes by certain consumers of CPI data, but it's not the headline figure/main measure, so disagreement with its appropriateness as the main measure is fine, but a beating a strawman.
This is simply false. Firstly CPI includes both rent and owners equivalent rent, weighted in proportion to the people that rent and own houses respectively. Secondly, OER is calculated based on estimates of current rental prices. Plus of course including OER rather than treating rent as something homeowners don't have to worry about tends to increase CPI when rents rise fast...
> In addition, the Fed’s core inflation number is ex food and energy prices, which is also misleading.
"Core inflation" is a separate time series to the CPI, clearly reported as an alternative measure excluding volatile energy and food prices to compare with CPI.
The only "misleading" is people ranting about how a separate dataset created specifically for comparison purposes proves dishonesty on the part of those calculating CPI...
US Gas prices are $3.68 a gallon, down from over $5 a few months ago. That's hardly inflation.
https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/
Picking a random date about 6 months ago it was $4.25
https://web.archive.org/web/20220310032222/https://gasprices...
Lumber prices are down 65% since March, about the same as this time last year, and indeed back in 2018
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price...
This is not symptomatic of hyperinflation, it's symptomatic of supply being lower than demand, causing an increase in supply or a decrease in demand, which takes time
If gas prices drive inflation, why are we not seeing deflation from the gas price drop?
Changes in costs also take time to filter through the economy, and indeed in the last 2 months prices have come down (CPI in June was 296.311, in August it was 296.171)
This stubborn hand-wavy argument that prices stay high due to greed smacks of economic illiteracy and White House propaganda.
If I raise the price of a gizmo I'm selling by 20% because my costs went up, why would I reduce the price when my costs go down but demand is still high? I like my increased profits, and so does my competition. The myth of perfect competition is a exactly that: established companies do not engage in races to the bottom, "cartel" behavior is emergent.
How does your perfect competition theory explain why tuition prices have been going up over 5+ decades, vastly exceeding inflation?
Because Apple keeps making the phone better.
> How does your perfect competition theory explain why tuition prices have been going up over 5+ decades, vastly exceeding inflation?
I didn't espouse a "perfect competition" theory. That's your strawman. Anyhow, tuition prices have gone up because the government provides rivers of cash to prospective students. The pool of students thus has gone up drastically, and because of limited supply of colleges, and vast demand by students with fistfuls of cash (and little sense), the tuition went up. A lot.