It’s incredibly interesting and very niche. There are a handful of academic papers out there. I think it will be a big deal in the next 10 years.
For years I've had this idea rattling around in my head to build a web UI that shows a graph of some historical quantity, e.g., company revenue, disease cases, global mean temperature anomaly, stock prices, etc. The historical data is shown as a curve which terminates at the present, and there's some empty space for the future. The user then uses a freehand drawing tool to extend the historical curve into the future, based on what they feel will happen. Save this data, and let users view some average(s) of all crowdsourced curves, grouped by submission date. Stretch goal: let users track their own forecast accuracy, and let users view forecasts weighted or filtered by the historical forecast accuracy of contributing users.
Is this close to what you're working on? I have no idea how useful or interesting this would be, but I feel like I'd learn a ton just trying to build it. Alas, I just haven't made the time, and lack the skills to hack something together in a reasonable time.
“Expert” is that you’re asking people who should know what they’re talking about, not random laypeople.
“Elicitation” is that there’s a whole process to it. You don’t just ask “What are the odds this movie will do $100 million in domestic box office in its first month?”. You ask lots of smaller questions and use visuals to build up an answer.
I also like how “expert elicitation” sounds like we should be doing a good job eliciting!
We already have so many places internally to put in forecasts. Cash flow projections for example. But, all you get is a text box. I’m working on making that easier and more representative before anything else. Making a web app (when all you have is a hammer…) to start. From there, there will be lots more to do but beyond what I’d like to share publicly for now.