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I agree with you, that 3/5 is stretching. This seems premature.

But, at the rate we're seeing progress, I don't think there's any doubt at this point that top of the line models will be able to do all the proposed examples by June 2025. In fact, by June 2025 I bet that millions of people will be able to generate those images on their home computers.

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A lot of people in 2016 looked at the rapid progress of driverless cars in the few years prior and declared that there was no doubt we'd have full autonomy by 2022.

>by 2022

Make that 2020. And in 2012 I was personally told by a startuper in the field that I would be able to buy L5 in 2017.

In 2009 I was certain we'd have cars with no driving seat available for general purchase by 2018.

Perhaps you should reach out to Gary Marcus and offer him the chance to take the other side of that version of the bet.

If you're really confident, you could change the conditions such that 5 out of 10 images (for 3/5 prompts) are required to depict the described scene. That would alleviate some of the concerns around cherry-picking.

A suitable home for such a public bet would be: https://longbets.org/

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