I’ll take the 20%. Text-to-video won’t be good enough to be called realistic in a year.
> It's very likely that realistic looking (to the level of Stable Diffusion) video will happen and tools to create it will be available within 12 months (maybe 80% likelihood).
> What is likely to be missing is the ability to control that video in useful ways directly from prompts.
ie, I'm not claiming it will entirely text based.
As an example of the kind of things we'll see I'd point at https://twitter.com/karenxcheng/status/1564626773001719813
This is using live video as a source, but I think an integrated version of this combined with some kind maybe game based interface to script it is achievable.