The buffett indicator and shiller PE are good indicators but it misses the point. What you're looking at is a "normal market swing" indicator and what we're standing in is a nuclear reactor about to go critical. It's about as useful as a windchime at chernobyl.

The market is overvalued because of free money. Stock buybacks for the last 10 years account for easily 80% of the EPS gains in major stocks. Global issues are important as well, but still...missing the point. America has a lot of ammunition available to deploy to at least make these issues far less painful than they good be (albeit, still painful).

The fed will continue to print billions of dollars whenever congress asks. If you notice their language they refuse to use the R-word and news agencies won't say it either despite every economic indicator pointing at a deep recession. The fed is LOOKING for any avenue to continue to keep rates lower, or lower them further (possibly into the negatives) because the alternative is literal pandemonium.

The fed does not want this money train to stop. In fact, I'm of the opinion it can't stop. If they stop the money train everything goes to hell. Raise rates just an inch too high and we're overnight in a depression. Keep rates too low and stagflation. Raise them just enough, then lower them back, and we melt up which for Powell's next term will look good. It'll be the next guy's fault - anyway. If you do the math, the country cannot possibly raise the tax base enough to pay off debt should the country lose it's credit rating. The fed is doing the equivalent of blindfolded brain surgery to keep the green candle sticks coming. Funny, all of this could've been prevented if we stopped the fed from being able to purchase directly from the market.

While I think in the long term you are more than correct I think in the short term you are very wrong. You're underestimating just how much the beast will fight before it dies... and this time when it dies it may be permanent. We never did resolve the 2008 crisis. We were just starting to pay into the principle on the loan we gave ourselves to save the banks when COVID hit. Then the money printers spun into high gear and now there's no possible way we can go back without significant pain. Enough pain that every person with the ability to do something about it will find a reason to not do it. No one wants to go down in the history books as the person who killed capitalism for a generation.

For what it’s worth I’m not buying or selling anything at the moment and I hold very little in the stock market. I have a modest home in a cheap place and that’s about it.

You’re just another stark raving lunatic on a forum. Why are you even making this comment if you aren’t?