By now Technical Analysis is all about reading meaning into white noise (that’s overlaying fundamentals and a general light upwards trend).
"Alpha" is not just some blind thing that happens when you pick <popular_stock> and use it. Yes, in most cases "easy" strategies have been arbitraged out in well covered highly liquid issues.
However, there is significant alpha even in simple trend following strategies in certain time frames, markets, and liquidity. If it wasn't the case we wouldn't have independently verified traders bringing in excess alpha using such simple systems. Dramatic changes in the volatility regime of even a highly liquid issue can make a simple strategy profitable. Timing is often more important than being exactly right. In fact relative to position size a highly active simpler system will tend to produce excessive Sharpe.
The market you trade is more important than the system you use in a lot of cases. Retail traders can generate significant alpha by simply trading where the hedge funds can't see. In fact I've traded a simple seasonal strategy with significant upside profit in several markets using statistical arbitrage. This type of arbitrage is completely captured by variations of the Bollinger band.
Strong EMH is empirically disproven. My post is not a cope post. I would suggest doing more research rather than grouping all methods of technical analysis into the astrology category. Often times these expensive "top tier" quantitative models are nothing more than more complicated variations on moving averages (ARCH/GARCH, etc).
Statistical arbitrage worked well when it was first discovered then faded away.
It is true that if you discover a novel statistical technique, and keep it secret, you can do very well, at enormous risk, for a while.
Look at the history of "pairs trading"
But not knowing you, when you traded or the actual algorithms yu used etcetera I suspect you were trading in a rising market. Beating a rising market is easy, as is beating a falling market. Problem is, you do not know what you are in today until tomorrow.
Here is some advice for free: Buy and hold. Indexed funds. Get rich by working hard.
I don't trade for the money I trade for the challenge. The money is just a point system I use to see if I am winning. The tone of your reply makes me think I am considering myself an expert - which I am not. I am pretty well read on various trading methodologies, the papers being produced about trading, and have quite a lot of time in seat across varying markets including most recently the futures market during the onset of COVID. After paying my tuition to Mr. Market several times I've gained some experience that makes me money.
As for pairs trading that is exactly what I did. I've done it every season for years in several markets both equities and futures, and it has absolutely no correlation with a rising or falling general market. Though I have occasionally lost money when the legs go out of sync and, being a retail trader, do not have prime execution. But alpha is alpha, and one example is enough to disprove OPs conjecture that all technical analysis is bunk.
I can't tell if you're talking down at me or not so I'll be charitable and say I think B&H is great and I do it all the time. In fact, 99% of my money is tied up in tax advantaged B&H. However, I enjoy trading like I enjoy poker. So I spend some of my money on it. It's one of the few places you can get a challenge that tasks you in several different areas and it's better than donating to yet another 501 (c) 3 with a CEO that takes down a questionably large salary.
What is a tax advantaged Buy and Hold?
That depends on your model. (Because it is your model that defines "long term")
It is possible for markets to trend downward for decades at a time.