Among the areas expected to be the most affected by global warming are large parts of China, India and Pakistan. 1.5C on average might be 5-6C there, which is enough to make large, densely populated areas unlivable (as in you will die without AC).
2+ billion people living there having to move elsewhere is nothing we've seen before, the only direction they can really move is north, into Russia. All countries mentioned have nuclear weapons.