Among the areas expected to be the most affected by global warming are large parts of China, India and Pakistan. 1.5C on average might be 5-6C there, which is enough to make large, densely populated areas unlivable (as in you will die without AC).
2+ billion people living there having to move elsewhere is nothing we've seen before, the only direction they can really move is north, into Russia. All countries mentioned have nuclear weapons.
Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh has this forecast for next Tuesday: 44C(110F). And that temp is there most of the summer.
"Saudi population has grown rapidly since 1950 when it was estimated to be 3 million, and for many years had one of the highest population growth rates in the world at around 3 per cent a year."
- Conservatives in wealthy, cold countries refuse to stop polluting.
- Pakistan becomes uninhabitable.
- Conservatives in wealthy, cold countries pull up the draw bridge and refuse to let in migrants.
- People in Pakistan die.
- Conservatives in wealthy, cold countries blame the people in Pakistan.
This isn't an intentionally politically charged post made with animus. It's just factually outlining what's currently going on and a plausible sequence of events from here.