CICO is not wrong but it's like 5% of the issue. People only lazily argue CICO as some kind of case-closed internet flourish. It's like going up to an NBA pro and going "bro, why do you ever miss, it's just physics"
CICO is not wrong but it's like 5% of the issue. People only lazily argue CICO as some kind of case-closed internet flourish. It's like going up to an NBA pro and going "bro, why do you ever miss, it's just physics"
I'm British and my partner is Russian. Our first date was at an Italian restaurant and she ordered a pizza.
She was shocked to receive a full circle of pizza, as opposed to a slice.
I was shocked she was only expecting a slice.
That was quite eye-opening for me. I've never been overweight and growing up my parents brought me up on a good diet (albeit somewhat large portions). Looking around, many people weren't fortunate enough to have the same experience with food. Either because they grew up on fast food, or because their parents cooked large batches of rather beige British food.
(Practically) anybody being stubborn with themselves following a CICO diet will lose weight. But the portion sizes and types of food people eat have definitely been misunderstood as having less energy.
I've been confused for some time as to why our food packaging recommends 2500 calories for men and 2000 for women, when the basal metabolic rate (BMR), the amount of energy burnt daily by doing nothing is around 1500, and the extra 1000 calories would require a decent amount of exercise which most people simply don't do (akin to a daily 10 mile run). I have assumed it's food companies lobbying to increase it with a very optimistic view on people's daily energy expenditure.
Edit: another thing I would do first thing would be to cut the meal in half and put half in the fridge. Good for lunch the next day.
You stop by a restaurant and order a burger. Maybe the restaurant has calories posted. Those calories are probably based on the "corporate standard" for that item, or might be based on buying samples of the product from several locations and averaging. But your burger won't have exactly that number of calories. Perhaps this person puts more or less of certain toppings on than is average. Perhaps your patty was slightly larger or smaller than average.
All of that means it is hard to know the real calorie count. The same sort of thing will apply but is possibly even worse for food you prepare yourself from scratch. It is not trivial to even calculate the calories in meals you prepare, especially if fresh produce is involved. (For packaged ingredients you can try to go by the info on the nutrition label, but be warned that the rounding rules can make those misleading at times. But for fruits and vegetables, the best you can do is look up the average Caloric density for this variery, and hope that the items you have are not from some local strain with meaningful differences from the normal for that variety). In the end, it is actually easiest to accurately count calories when only eating prepackaged foods, which are generally viewed poorly.
And this is not counting the fact that the systems we use to determine the calories in food are not completely accurate. Using a calorimeter to measure the heat energy output by completely combusting the food is objective, but flawed because the body does not perfectly combust everything we ingest! The Atwater system we currently use can at least in theory account for this, but the numbers used are not especially accurate and have known weaknesses. Plus they depend on accurately determining the number of grams of protein, fat, carbohydrates, non-digestible carbohydrates (like dietary fiber), etc. I suspect that even on extremely tightly controlled packaged food we could be out by over 10%. The limited precision of the Atwater numbers could easily bring the food to a 5% margin of error on its own, before considering accuracy issues with those numbers, or accuracy/precision limitations on determining the protien, fat, carb contents.
And so far I've only tackled the calories in side, and not issues with calories out, like accounting for the basal metabolic rate varying in response to changes to the diet, or that not 100% of all nutritional value will get extracted from the food, and many others. There is a LOT that can be said about that side.
But bigger picture, compliance with any given diet is an issue, and any diet that approach that requires counting calories means more effort must be expended to comply, making it much more likely that the person will either "cheat" on the diet, or just stop even trying after getting worn down enough. That is why even if CICO is thermodynamically sound and sufficent, it is not in and of itself a viable dieting strategy.
The act of consistently observing one's own weight, what one eats, and what exercise one does, is a viable dating strategy, much more so than Paleo, Keto or some other named diet which can push book sales and courses.
To drop 100g of weight requires around a 700 calorie deficit (or 7000cal for 1kg). If you're rounding up your energy intake, rounding down your exercise/BMR estimates, and still staying clear 700 calories or more a day, you'll shift the weight.
I think the issue comes when people try to use CICO with precision, thinking that 50cal here, 100cal, 7cal there etc. will add up and help them lose weight. It's not big enough deficits and like you stated, they're probably actually in surplus from bad measuring/inaccurate figures at that point, so they'll likely maintain/gain weight.
Completely agree on the restaurant / self-prepared food. That's why you round it up. I round up everything to the next 50/100, even if the packaging states a figure.
Basically, you're overthinking it. You need to simplify it. Also, as someone said, you don't need to be that precise.