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Comment by curiousgal | Hacker News Reader

Okay this is a genuine question but why are the G7 not backing down when clearly their populations are the ones suffering?

It feels strange to me living in the UK that the sanctions have been spearheaded by the US when they are mostly shielded from Russia. Whereas for European countries, it is obvious that they are dependent on Russian gas and yet they are not willing to negotiate.

The average citizen cares about their energy bill and putting food on the table more than some idealistic notion of standing up to bullies.

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Also in the UK. Personally I'm sick of seeing our government cosy up to authoritarian regimes because they have something we happen to want. In the UK we're particularly unlucky in that the people currently in charge don't really care if the poor in our society freeze or starve as they've stated so astutely in the recent leadership contest.

The rest of the G7 at least seem prepared to shield their population as much as possible through planning and government intervention, which is probably why they seem much less concerned.

On top of that, the answer to the pain of the current sanctions isn't to go back to relying on Russian gas. It's to pump covid levels of investment into alternatives that don't require us to prop up quasi-dictatorships in order to keep the lights on.

>alternatives that don't require us to prop up quasi-dictatorships in order to keep the lights on

But how? The entire economy of the city of London is based on being the word's money laundering capital, vacation playground and best buddy for Russian Oligarchs, Saudi Royals, CCP big shots and other wealthy dictators and warlords. It's Thacher's legacy.

I think it's deeply ingrained in British culture, through its very much alive social class system. Precisely what Brits (seem to?) like about that qaint system is what makes it possible to maintain such a careless elite class that is not only not punished for creating extractive vehicles such as the City, but even praised and rewarded for it, through British identity politics. "Great" Britain, world power, A-rank capital, and so on.

Brits never saw a social revolution, and it shows.

Why Thatcher and not Blair? His reforms have a more direct influence on the situation we find ourselves in. After all, it was Mandelson who said "We are intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich."

Because it's all politicians since Thatcher ? But i will admit that the Third way, like it's French equivalent 10 years ago, can do more harm faster than regular liberals.

> entire economy of the city of London

Is pretty much the entire economy of the UK.

Yes Thatcher had her part to play, but election after election after referendum, the will of the people is more of the same Great British exceptionalism.

I think it'd be more accurate to say the will of some people given the effects of the current voting system. That's without going into the effectiveness of tabloid newspapers in inventing public opinion. While people bear at least some responsibility for their actions, I do think they can be put into perspective when you consider the circumstances which led to them.

People get what they vote for. What's the problem?

I am extremely comfortable with people having to suffer the obvious consequences of their choicse, it only bothers me hearing them moan about it.

> I am extremely comfortable with people having to suffer the obvious consequences of their choicse [sic]

Of course, because you probably don't have to live with any serious consequences of your choices, and you're most likely unaffected by these ones either.

Almost half if not more than half of the population in a democracy usually doesn't get to make a realistic choice, they voted for the losers without enough power to enact anything.

Most people don't get to live with the result of their choices but the result of others'. This means the pain is lessened for those responsible, and heightened for others. Are they allowed to moan without triggering your sensibilities? How would you know which is which?

Then realistically you probably didn't get to "suffer" the real consequences from most of your democratic process related choices. If you voted for leadership that went on to wage an illegal war you don't get to bear any of that responsibility. People love to bang their own drum about democracy, and freedoms, and their power, and the contribution they made. Until you bring up what the leaders they chose did. And then it's no longer their responsibility, then it's just a stamp on a paper, not a share of the responsibility. What are the consequences you suffer for something like that?

> Then realistically you probably didn't get to "suffer" the real consequences from most of your democratic process related choices.

An example of this that I have heard many times is that of Blair and Iraq.

However now the situation is more interesting as Brexit was done to themselves, not others (though that does not make any suffering ok).

> Brexit was done to themselves

Part of my point is that unanimity (amongst the people) in democracy is pretty much unheard of. So Brexit was not done by everyone. Realistically it wasn't even done by a majority of the population. All the others are in for the ride despite being against it.

Democracy may be the best system we've got now but it sure sucks sometimes. It's why it's called the dictatorship of the majority, and many countries are democratic and yet have very little protections for the different minorities, particularly the ones who have no chance of becoming a majority anytime soon.

The other part of the point is that most times people don't suffer from some of their decisions despite taking credit for any when it suits them. Similar to sport fans where when their team wins "we won", and when it loses "they lost".

An interesting point about both is that the proponents garnered their support through extensive lies, directly and through the media.

Public support of the Iraq war went hand in hand with the UN both finding WMDs and approving action[0].

The lies about Brexit are pretty infamous: from £350m/week for the NHS to stoking immigration fears and the fabrication of EU powers.

While it's disappointing that people are convinced by these types of lies, I'm not sure they're fully to blame; or that it does much good to do so. The bigger question is how do you combat these lies. The ones that seem to tickle the part of the brain where factual arguments don't seem to have much sway.

[0] https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/iraq-last-pre-war-polls

People moan about it because they and their governments haven't understood the consequences of their votes and actions. They wanted to have their cake and eat it too.

It doesn't help that elections are also just popularity contests and charades of endless lies and empty promises. Your average voter is far too I'll equipped to make informed judgements on complex issues making them easy to influence through fear mongering by groups with vested interests in seeing the results they want.

Everything is fucked.

> London is based on being the word's money laundering capital, vacation playground and best buddy for Russian Oligarchs, Saudi Royals, CCP big shots and other wealthy dictators and warlords.

Having lived in Zurich for many years, those are fightin' words! /j

As a friend of mine defined Zurich in the mid 90s - Zurich - the Swiss city where one of ten is Swiss ...

The irony - she was mail order bride that just got her Swiss citizenship.

The quasi-Xenophobes are well and truly out of their closet.

I am full blown xenophobe, not quasi, but not in this case since I was from her home country and were visiting her for a week - but we spend probably half an hour in Zurich trying to find someone that knows the place and speak German or French at acceptable level to give us directions. It was during the late evening and out of 15 people we stopped like one was swiss.

I'm sorry to hear you had such an outlier of an experience - I've never been met with anything except understanding when asking for directions in any of the national languages.

> we spend probably half an hour in Zurich trying to find someone that knows the place and speak German or French at acceptable level to give us directions. It was during the late evening and out of 15 people we stopped like one was swiss.

Stopped...successfully? And does Swiss German count as "an acceptable level of German" :)? I don't find it hard to believe that 14 people would pass you by (as people would in a major city), but I find it hard to believe that out of 14 people, none would speak the major national languages.

No one passed us by. Everyone was very polite while we tried to communicate. We didn't speak English, and the ones that we met that spoke German or French were also foreigners. Just all of the people that we met that night were foreigners (I can remember Spaniard, Italian and Brazilian). It was 30 years ago. Zurich for me was even then insanely cosmopolite city.

It was mostly amusing. Not bad in any way.

It's also worth remembering that Russian forces have committed an assassination [0] on UK soil using radioactive material, and attempted another one that was bungled and killed an innocent English police officer _in England_ [1].

The general feeling towards Russia in the UK is very hostile, and there are certainly a huge number of people happy to put the squeeze on Putin. There is little to no enthusiasm for appeasement here, and the pressure is on the government to ease the pressure on the vulnerable without bending over to Russian foreign policy.

[0]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko

[1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Sergei_and_Yuli...

> The general feeling towards Russia in the UK is very hostile

It’s complicated though, as the money is loved, despite the toxic effect on property prices and political parties.

While BJ has made a show of his support for Ukraine, his relationship with Russia has been interesting.

> the people currently in charge don't really care if the poor in our society freeze or starve as they've stated so astutely in the recent leadership contest.

I am prepared to believe that until next week they are fully aware that the people who will elect them genuinely don't care about the poor. After that I hope the idea of getting re-elected by the public will induce a sudden change of plan, if not heart.

I hope you are right, but nothing in recent history would suggest you you.

I'm not in the UK but we are having a similar cost of living crisis in Ireland.

I'm happy to pay the price of solidarity with Ukraine.

I work with both Russian and Ukrainian people and none of them want this war.

People are dieing and being forced out of their homes. I know this is happing everywhere but I would like to support these people: 1 because I know people in that country and 2 because like Britain in the second world war they are fighting for some form of a fair democracy.

If that means I have to buy cheaper food and not have heating.. It's a small price to pay compared to what my friends are going through.

> I'm not in the UK but we are having a similar cost of living crisis in Ireland.

I'm irish, living in the UK, and the cost of living crisis is significantly worse here. The standard rate that Electric ireland are about to increase to for both gas and electricity is lower than I paid last winter, and we're about to see our bills almost double from that (and do the same again in 6 months). My bill in october will be almost 4x the cost of what it was last september.

Backing down means handing the victory to Russia, which is politically costly in the short term and probably not financially cheaper in the long term. Whether europe wants it or not, they are involved in a war, and you can't just back down in a war without consequences.

You could also argue that the current prices are just a teaser of what's coming anyway so more incentive to innovate now instead of later. Very harsh and not completely true, but I think there's a little bit of truth to it

Russia is exporting more oil and gas to china and India and in long run will export to Africa as well in addition to building 19 nuclear reactors across the world from Egypt to Argentina.

China is reselling Russian lng while India is reselling Russian oil as blend.

True intelligence is backing down now but stopping all Russian imports gradually over next 10 years

So you think the west should've just let Russia take over Ukraine?

Even without the sanctions Russia would've still most likely disrupted gas & oil supply as long as the west supplied Ukraine's army.

China increased US gas imports to record levels, after the war started. US is now the biggest exporter of LNG gas to China:

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight...

Your news article is from 2020.

In 2022, China increased LNG from Russia by over 60% and dropped from US by 76%. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-i...

I as an "average citizen" living in Germany care more about an idealistic notion of standing up to bullies than living in complete comfort.

I don't know about the UK, but here nobody is going to have problems putting food on the table or freezing to death this winter. [Edit: I should say, no more problems than we already have.]

My small discomfort at higher heating prices pales in comparison to the death and destruction that Russia is inflicting on Ukraine. If my small discomfort can stop that at all sooner then I am happy to face some discomfort.

I don't understand how people fail to see that our standing up for Ukraine and putting an end to this Russian war as soon as possible is also purely in our self-interests. Russia rampaging through all of Ukraine, and then Georgia, and then Kazakhstan, and then Uzbekistan, and then Finland, and then ..., and then maybe on to NATO (Poland? Balitics?) -- this is not in our interests.

"Oh, but Russia won't do that!" Yeah, that's what all the experts said about Ukraine also. No, sorry, Russia must be stopped now because Russia can no longer be trusted at all.

Not sure what experts you are talking about, Russia itself said Ukraine is no more if it continues to pursue NATO membership. They were saying that since orange revolution in 2004.

Also, looks like your neighbors don’t share your opinion.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-prague-european-un...

because if we had not done this, ukraine would have been obliterated, and russia would have been knocking at the EU's door. having war on our doorstep, and being called up because poland is being attacked is not what I want.

The Inflation issues we have are partly because of russia, partly because we have a stupidly designed pricing structure. From my understanding we only import about 20% of our gas.

However global gas price sets the entire uk's electricity price. Gas sometimes accounts for 50% -60% of the UK's electricity generation, but that shouldn't result in a 1000% rise in costs.

Because energy companies, even European ones, are making bank. So are asset owners.

Every crisis is someone's opportunity to make money off other peoples' loss. As long as their assets are safe and keep going up, nobody cares about CoL going up. Well, at least until riots happen and political extremism grows to new heights.

Come on France, 'do yer thang' (riots), we'll follow suit.

> Come on France, 'do yer thang' (riots), we'll follow suit.

Somewhat unlikely for now. The government is shielding the population from the worst, as they should, by capping electricity prices and with grants/loans to those worst impacted. The average Brit is being hit much worse than the average French.

You are not shielding the country. By printing money to pay for high energy cost, you maintain demand high when there is scarcity (instead of letting the demand adjust, people using heating as little as they can, companies finding substitute for gas, etc), that's a recipe for making the problem worse.

The free market excuses work for luxury goods but they don't work for necessities. Prices have already reached the point where a large percentage of the population will not be able to afford any form of heating whatsoever over the winter. As a country we already know that a non-insignificant number of people develop serious illness or die because of a lack of heating.

Making the choice to take no action further compounds the issue as you deepen the coming recession and create more people who cannot pay to heat their homes or keep the economy going.

The answer to a crisis like this is price caps, investment in alternatives, taxes on profits, and if necessary targeted restrictions on energy use.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with covering a situation like this with debt in order to keep people and the economy alive.

They will afford heating, only they will heat just the room they need at the temperature they need rather than heating to comfort. And keep in mind, if demand goes down, prices go down.

> They will afford heating, only they will heat just the room they need at the temperature they need rather than heating to comfort

How do you know this? Did you do the math? And you know it's not just heating, right, it's electricity too. They'll eat only raw food to not waste energy on ovens and cooktops?

> And keep in mind, if demand goes down, prices go down.

Not with external pressure (war) and near total lack of supply no it doesn't.

Will everyone afford heating? The most painful point hasn’t been reached yet and some reports suggest it’s got a long way to go (tripling by the end of winter).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-20/price-cap...

> The average citizen cares about their energy bill and putting food on the table more than some idealistic notion of standing up to bullies.

this one is based on what? on some sources or own projections?

Because we fucking hat it with Russia. Yeah we could back down and then maybe they will send us some gas and then what? What will be their demand next time?

Yes we need to deal with this crisis by constructing enough nuclear power plants that we never need power again, and that means overriding all rules about planning permissions.

This means that energy prices will be higher than before this winter, and then lower and green forever after. Technically Europe still needs to import Uranium, but we can get that from anywhere and a single ship or aircraft can transport enough for it never to be an issue.

The allies could have backed down in WWII, handing major concessions to the Axis. Would we be better off today?

Backing down to a bully will only encourage and empower it further. The current situation in Europe is status quo in poor countries, so the world isn't ending...

Counter-argument.

Why are the G7 not increasing the aid to Ukraine, to more quickly end the war and force Russia to settle?

The G7, NATO and others have showered Ukraine with more money than it will ever be able to spend on military assets (which they are also being showered with). Ukraine needs experienced solders and expertise in the conflict zone. NATO, G7, etc. are unwilling to make that escalation so they'll keep on throwing more money and resources into a black hole to appear to be doing something when they're not willing to do the one thing that must be done if they want Ukraine to prevail. The only question is how long will the people of the nations supporting Ukraine continue to let this go on? Unless those supporting Ukraine do so with their own bodies, the end result of the conflict is guaranteed, all we're doing now is prolonging the pain.

Because G7 is afraid of Russia splintering into 10 nuclear republics. This is well covered by various analysts.

So G7 wants a soft "landing".

They are trying to quickly end the war, it’s Russia who’s prolonging it on purpose. Russia attacked with 1 against 4 in manpower, and is completely fine with the war lasting for a long time.

We now see how western powers are forcing Ukraine to do devastating counter offensives that will lead to quicker defeat. And even then I think Russia will take its time.

We’re approaching a 10 year long business cycle where cheap energy is everything, and Russian’s know that. There is no way out without huge money printing to replace Russian energy, all the while we finished biggest money printing cycle in our lifetimes.

Russia waited since 2014 and chose a best time. Europe will fold sooner or later.

You make it sound like this is going how Putin wanted it to, and that this is calculated and cunning.

If he didn’t want to prolong the war, why he sent only a fraction of his army? Why they’re attacking only southern and eastern parts and not from Belorus?

Looking at last 2 decades you think Putin is incompetent? You can say many things about him but that’s the last fucking thing on the list.

He lost half of his Spetnaz regiments during the first week, and 80 to 90% of the para (that means close to half are dead or incapacitated).

It would be like France loosing half its marsouins and chasseurs alpins, and 80% of the legion in a week. A disaster.

And the worse is that Ukrainian migs are still flying over occupied territory. That's unforgivable. It's the proof that the fox3 capabilities they were boasting about are in fact shit. Now they lost Thales for their optics and avionics, so that might be an explanation on why their engagement range for air to air combat seems limited, but this is a bad look.

Sure buddy.

You really think that reaching a stalemate with a military as small as that of Ukraine was his aim? The equilibrium reached is slowly but surely swinging against Putin.

He ran away from the capital. He is running out of troops and is getting close to conscription. He is dragging out ‘50s and ‘60s tank relicts to fight after losing his prime weapons. His airforce is hiding and his best ship was sunk. His oligarchs are starting to desert him and are getting bombed or falling out windows.

Exactly.. Why not amp up the war against the super power with most nukes in the world.

I wonder what would happen if the real civilized world started aiding freedom fighters against UK in Iraq, Syria and Libya?

Russia will probably start doing that

Do I understand correctly that what you propose is making this derailed "super"power richer and more connected to the countries it's been trying to subvert for fifteen years?

This false equivalency is honestly revolting.

Anyways, Putin is, hopefully, not mad enough to step into nuclear territory. We'll see how he fares when he's cornered in (when Ukraine's counteroffensives get too serious to hide from the Russian public and he has to mobilise to hope to win, or back down.

>the sanctions have been spearheaded by the US when they are mostly shielded from Russia. Whereas for European countries, it is obvious that they are dependent on Russian gas and yet they are not willing to negotiate.

This was my problem with the Syria war too.

US: We want war! Europe you will get refugees, good luck.

>US: We want war! Europe you will get refugees, good luck.

Europe could have also have pursued a strong military, independent of US protection, energy independence from Russia and a strong domestic tech sector allowing it to stick it up and sanction US and Russian warmongering.

But as it stands, it has to 'shut up and take it'.

Eu is addicted to cheap Russian gas. Replacing with anything other than renewable will drive energy prices higher.

The second largest steel mill in the world closed today in Germany.

>The second largest steel mill in the world closed today in Germany.

"Oh look, if it isn't the consequences of my own actions." - Germany, 2022 (hopefully)

> yet they are not willing to negotiate

Negociate what?

Russia has stated multiple times that the only negotiation offer they accept is the complete surrender of Ukraine:

> Russia vowed on Tuesday its assault on Ukraine would continue until Kyiv surrenders

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220628-russia-demand...

> Okay this is a genuine question but why are the G7 not backing down when clearly their populations are the ones suffering?

The G7 includes the EU as a non enumerated member. The EU, which does not include Ukraine but does include the Baltics and some Nordic states which fear for their own safety. Not to mention how intertwined the G7’s interests are with NATO.

There is a really derpy “if you ignore all the killing that’s happening in this war, it would totally make financial sense to end the sanctions” vibe to some of these comments. The people who are at risk have a say as well.

6 out of 10 Britons support sanctions against Russia.

I then genuinely hope that the same 6 out of 10 are happy to pay their increased energy bill.

It probably makes sense to modify that from “happy” to “willing”.

It didn’t have to be that way though. It probably does now, but reducing dependence on Russia would have been wise in hindsight. It doesn’t take a genius to see that depending on Russia is a bad idea.

For sure, but that boat has sailed. Right now cutting them off as quickly as possible is the right thing to do.

Not everyone cares only about themselves. Some things are worth a degree of sacrifice.

Surprisingly, the U.K. isn’t nearly as affected as mainland Europe by Russia’s antics. But sky-high crude prices, regulatory capture and lack of storage (government neglect, again) mean that, shockingly, U.K. is going to suffer worse than Germany.

Blaming this all of this on the UK’s stance wrt Russia is mostly a move by politicians who don’t want to admit how badly they’ve messed regular governing up.

I think worth pointing out that while this is a Europe-wide issue, the challenges faced by the UK are exacerbated by a lot of other dumb shit going on - the UK is way less reliant on Russian gas than some other countries.

Aside from the obvious Brexit hangover, there is now a messy and confused series of economic policies in place and no clear leadership with regard to policies that could help tackle this issue. The quite literal absence of a functioning executive makes it difficult to take action, and even after a new PM is in place on Monday it’s not clear what’s going to happen.

At least for my part, I’m entirely happy with a massive tax increase on myself and people like me if it helps to ensure that tanks don’t roll into Romania, and my neighbours don’t starve or freeze to death over winter. The “average citizen” in any case is probably more compassionate than you give them credit for.

> when clearly their populations are the ones suffering?

Their populations, not their leaders.

The sanctions were spearheaded by europe, the US followed, initially reluctantly (Biden wanted some symbolic sanctions like freezing a few bank accounts and banning a handful of people from travel). It is european countries (and EU countries), that Putin claims are in Russia' sphere of influence (Baltic states, Poland, czech republic, etc). That stated nostalgia for lost power was easy to dismiss until 2022 (and I dismissed it). But the Ukraine invasion made it clear they cannot be dismissed anymore and if Ukraine becomes a military success for Russia, the next provocations and aggressions will target EU countries.

So no, this is not something imposed by the US, it is a policy initiated by europe, for europe's benefit, and with the support of the US.

You’ve guessed incorrectly how much the average citizen cares about standing up to Putin. Most people believe that the consequences of not standing up to him would be far worse

Impressive how much propaganda can achieve. The average citizen also wanted to stand up to Saddam, Gaddafi, xi , Al Assad before they take over the world

12 of current EU members lived under Russian occupation for >40 years.

And still, a considerable amount of people in Hungary (in my opinion 40%+, mostly from the poorer demographics) are strongly opposed to sanctions against Russia if that means the utility costs increase. I bet the memory of the countries on Russia's border function better, but don't underestimate the power of falling living standards paired with wishful thinking (that is, Russia will stop definitely at Ukraine's borders).

> Impressive how much propaganda can achieve.

Alanis Morissette missed a lyric.

Interesting how people care about Ukraine where Russian actions are arguably very localized to military targets but no one is concerned for over 500k dead in Iraq and their current civil war, all caused by certain NATO countries. Half of the ME is on fire, but no one care. Just a bunch of hypocrites.

> Russian actions are arguably very localized to military targets

I don’t think anyone believes this.

Your comment is whataboutism at a grand level. It is possible to oppose slaughtering people wherever they live.

Yet people didn’t oppose when their own governments were slaughtering people. Countries ruined for decades if not centuries. Whataboutism would be if I justified Russian actions, but I’m not doing that. I’m looking at the western butchers pointing fingers at Russian butchers. Hypocrite.

> The average citizen cares about their energy bill and putting food on the table more than some idealistic notion of standing up to bullies.

If that where true we would all be Nazi.

Remember when Victoria nuland said " fuck the EU" to Ukrainian authorities?

Remember when Trump imposed duties on EU?

Yeah the rich of US doesn't care.. Sorry

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