> it is fun trying to find lines that have positive expected value
I've never gambled before, does this happen often? I would have assumed gambling companies wouldn't offer any bets like this, since it implies their EV is negative.
I've never gambled before, does this happen often? I would have assumed gambling companies wouldn't offer any bets like this, since it implies their EV is negative.
Since Thorp, Casinos have made it harder to beat them (e.g. larger decks), but they still tease the possibility you can beat them to entice people to try (and lose).
Edward Thorp later went on to write Beat the Market, where he tried to apply similar probability principles to the stock market. He independently invented the options formula, before Black-Scholes (which the latter won a Nobel Prize).
It's why on a 1:1 bet, you'd lose money, as the sportsbook tend to take something like 10%. Even though the odds are 1:1, your $1 bet would net $0.90. ($1.90, you'd get your dollar back.)