Historian discovers a prized Galileo manuscript was forged
smithsonianmag.com
smithsonianmag.com
There are Picassos younger than this forgery. Maybe old and high quality forgeries are of some historical value after all? Indeed, what if the only remaining copy/copies of an old object or painting was a forgery/were all forgeries?
Imagine a painting being determined to be an elaborate forgery; it is NOT a genuine Da Vinci, it was faked!
Later research determines that the faker was Michelangelo! But we already destroyed it ... not realizing it had just been mislabeled ages ago.
I don't think you can meaningfully authenticate a scroll from just that, especially not one with a dubious history like this.
It seems to require a team of people based on some stuff I saw. A painter that has mastered the technique of the artist being copied. A canvas/substrate maker. ,Or sometimes they can find an old unused canvas and they paint on it so it passes dating tests. The paint ingredients usually have to be gotten from very specific locations, then require an expert in creating the old style paints from it. Sometimes they can find authentic old paint to use. Someone that knows how to recreate wear, tear and time damage to match the original. Finding old materials from the same time period and working it into the forgery is a common tactic.
Its quite an interesting situation if you have some free time to read or watch the many documentaries on the subject.
The mona lisa has a crazy history of being stolen, borrowed and lost so many times it could easily be a fake. And that is one of the most famous well known and closely watched artworks. What does that say about the rest...
I'm sure you are right that the majority of fakes are probably just sold directly to rich suckers. I don't think jail is a very high risk either. It seems most of the time these things are quietly swept under the rug when discovered even when reputable sellers get caught up in it. Of course this is on of those things that stats basically don't exist since it is all back room deals and confidential accounts. Hard to prove and as you mentioned no one wants to crash the market.
Of course the Doctor goes back in time and paints FAKE on all but one canvas, leaving a note to daVinci to "nevermind the scribble, just paint over it".