This is relevant to how outraged one should be by this story. I think it is probably > 1:100000. As such, probably not much outrage is warranted, although it’s obviously not great for this one guy.
It's fairly normal for parents to take pictures of their children naked in the bathtub/at the beach/ camping/etc.
Conversely, I'd expect actual pedophiles and CSAM producers to be really quite rare.
So even a relatively low base-rate of normal parents with normal nude photos would likely dwarf CSAM upon detection.
So, if we say 1/100 are pedophiles, and 30/100 are parents, and of the parents 10% have such photos, the ratio I'd expect without getting into detection rates is like 3:1 in favor of normal parents.
And what I understand is that each of these private photos of their children that parents take on an Android phone with Google cloud enabled gets specifically flagged to be shown to a stranger working for Google.
That sounds pretty insane to me.
*In fact that seems like it could be an effective form of extortion or swatting. Someone with access to your credentials could (threaten to) send CP over your account and ruin your life. Or destroy a small business.
There is a lot of child pornography in image sharing platforms. Facebook, which reports most reliably, had 20 million CSAM reports in 2021, and that’s photos posted to a social network or sent via messenger, not even in private albums. As I understand it CSAM is more focused on reporting re-uploads or transmission of known abuse material, rather than new material. So I still maintain that if we take the type of image referenced in the article as the denominator, vastly more of such photos would be child abuse material. Granted, 1:100000 is too high, I would revise that down to 1:1000.
One, We really need to know the base rates and false positive rates to reason well here.
Two, I think you'd also need to consider the number of people and number of photos. So like, a photo can be considered a trial, OR flagging a person can. I would imagine a given pedophile has a large number of CSAM photos, but there are few pedophiles. There are however lots of normal parents with fewer photos that might trigger a false positive, but because of that base-rate issue, even if the probability that a given photo is falsely identified as CSAM is quite low, the probability that a given person is falsely flagged/reported may NOT be low.
Google has inserted itself into almost all spheres of digital life by hook or crook. It's practically difficult to avoid them in many services - especially email. And now they play judge, jury and executioner. I don't understand any of these are acceptable, much less justifiable. The old argument 'think of the kids' used to justify digital authoritarianism is such a cliché by now.
The guy in the article works in the tech industry and lives in a city where a lot of journalists live, so he could get his story into the media.
What about others?
Bill Waterson somehow managed to sneak watercolor paintings of a naked little boy into every major newspaper under the guise of being a “comic strip”— the perv.
Dare I say that it is a peek into how Black people feel when they go out in public to do...anything.
Or at least the ratio is clearly not 1:100000, maybe more like closer to 1:10.
You would need statistics how many times google have reported police and how many times it have turned out to be a false alarm. Does google even keep record of false alarms? Most likely they don't to avoid responsibility.