I’m still stunned at how deeply we’ve compromised Russian intelligence. Not only in calling the invasion, but we’ve helped plan devastating Ukrainian counter offensives.
And as part of an invasion, you're moving a lot of logistically-heavy materiel near international borders. And stockpiling it in quantities that look different than exercises.
It would have been somewhat surprising if we hadn't noticed, between the E-8 & RQ-4 flights.
What was most fascinating to me about the article was how little effort Russia put into their diplomatic masquerade. With a few more key meetings or different messaging, they could have achieved a more successful military outcome.
But I guess that failure speaks to how much of an echo chamber the leadership circles have become. Aka "We believe this, so why wouldn't everyone else?"
Similar happened in the German military before WW2.