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Comment by zshbleaker | Hacker News Reader

I was born in China and my family runs factories here for many years.

What you mentioned is true, the absolute majority of the supply chain of the big name companies are still in China, and many of the alternatives in Vietnam are somehow managed by PRC background capital.

However, it’s absolutely a good start. The eco mic crisis raising in China will be like the 1930s in US, if not worse. My family are actively searching for ways to selling out everything and move out the country but it’s clearly prohibited by the Gov. We are worrying it will eventually becomes a new Third Reich in near future, when the supply chain will be completely destroyed.

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>My family are actively searching for ways to selling out everything and move out the country....We are worrying it will eventually becomes a new Third Reich in near future, when the supply chain will be completely destroyed.

May I ask is this in mainland china? I'm a bit surprised because we usually don't think like this. Most older generations (50s-60s) from the mainland would not consider migration unless they are from extremely previledged background with huge assets (still very unlikely, at least in mainland). Also I doubt any mainland chinese person would be familiar with the concept of the great depression and the third reich.

My ex-wife is Chinese and over the years she did mention a bit about her education.

Things like the great depression were covered in school. These make excellent examples of the "evils of capitalism" and how a communist government would protect you from these "evils".

Can you say more on why your family is trying to sell their factory.

Does the Zero Covid policy or the power crisis (because of China stopping the import of coal from Australia) has anything to do with it.

Not GP, but here are two more factors:

* Xi Jinping's increasingly tight and authoritarian control

* the upcoming demographic crisis in China: 1. its population will start shrinking (earlier and faster than assumed until recently), 2. the dependency ratio (proportion of non-working age population to working age population) will go up massively, 3. due to the demographic development (inverted pyramid), selective abortion and increasing women's liberation, the imbalance in the "marriage market" will get massively worse (150+ men per 100 women).

1/3 of men being incels caused by government policy isn’t going to go down well. Surely they can just import women though?

I'd assume that if they are given free choice, Chinese women are going to prefer husbands who do well in life. That would imply that the 1/3 of men who end up perpetually single are most likely poor farmers from the countryside, i.e. people without the means to travel abroad to meet someone there.

I’m saying 1/3 of men being without women will lead to violence. Or an even more extreme police state than now. Or both.

Australia would do well to not sell China iron ore either only the finished steal product; it would reduce transport costs and CO2 by 40%.

> it’s absolutely a good start.

Depends on why you think it's good. If you think it will hollow out PRC industry and will lead to collapse of CCP into Third Reich leading to collapse them you will probably be disapointed. CCP _wants_ PRC companies to expand in region because it's "cooperative" sourcing strategy that helps PRC geoeconomic posture by increasing dependence. Especially in Vietnam where PRC control over Mekong = influence over Vietnamese agriculture and energy via Laos hydogeneration upstream. The TLDR PRC moved into Vietnam long before tariffs, and while tariff dodging is nice perk, it's mostly another layer of influence/control over Vietnam.

> supply chain will be completely destroyed. ... > clearly prohibited by the Gov

Ergo why PRC supply chains won't be destroyed because apart from getting rid of polluting light industries where value:externalities do not compute, most relevant strategic supply chains will be protected in PRC for domestic use. I have family / friends who run factories as well, the ones in lowend got fucked whereas the ones higher up supply chain are doing fine. Those levers introduced last few years to prevent capital flight is why PRC is managing the eco crisis fine... a crisis by the way they chose to initiate (i.e. real estate) like past deleveraging efforts specifically because they have more lever to prevent actual crisis. But yeah people don't like the wild rides coming would be wise to look for excape plan, but it's going to be harder and harder to escape with much. Lots of people going to be fucked, while lots will continue to get rich, which is to say, same old China since the 90s.

It will help Vietnam develop knowledge and know-how and eventually we might see Vietnamese companies in the field. That's how China got started.

Which will be great. The more countries that gets developed on labour driven export based manufacturing, the better. Before automation starts closing that window.

Hope your family can get out.

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