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Comment by mariojv | Hacker News Reader

I think I remember reading somewhere that the US government hired firms during the Cold War - maybe RAND - to do game theoretic analyses of strategic nuclear defense. I'd be curious if there are any summaries of this historical research or new game theoretic analyses happening with today's events and the advent of hypersonic capabilities.

Terrifying stuff.

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In the movie "Dr Strangelove", it's never mentioned, but General Buck Turgidson is seen carrying around a binder with the title "World Targets in Megadeaths". I assume that's a reference to those kinds of studies. It's a really great movie and a good distillation of how absurd the whole Cold War was.

I forgot where I heard it but one analysis of a "successful" US defense (only thing hit by enemy nukes are our own nuclear assets) still had US deaths somewhere in the hundred millions from the resulting famine

No not really. They don't make a difference.

What could make a difference is whether or not the old Soviet nukes have actually been maintained and actually work. Not something one wants to test but it would make for some great sci fi to imagine the missiles launch, everyone clenches their butthole, and when everything's over, Russia is a crater in the ground and the west is fine.

edit: for reference hypersonic missiles tend to refer to the shorter range stuff. All the ICBMs of old were already hypersonic.

It is actually very likely that Russia's nuclear weapons are fine. CIA thinks [1] that they are conducting hydronuclear tests, i.e. nuclear tests where the yield is small enough to not turn the bomb into a plasma or a gas, but just to liquefy the plutonium pit.

[1] https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/08/08/yes_the...

That's a very interesting article, I'm surprised it doesn't seem to be more widely known.

>>> advent of hypersonic

I think it's advanced cyber capabilities in the context of loose nuclear proliferation that results in near 100% probability of general exchange in simulations ;)

Wargaming War Games: How Likely is Thermonuclear Cyber War?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_0mm8UkVOc

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