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On all of the Goldilocks planets we have so far been able to image with the resolution needed to determine the presence of life, we have determined the presence of life.

That is not mathematically rigorous, but it is, from the Bayesian perspective, enough to move the needle.

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Observer selection bias blows that argument out of the water. Ask yourself: if life were extremely rare, what would be different here on Earth? Nothing, because life has to have started on Earth for us to be here to be thinking about it.

> That is not mathematically rigorous, but it is, from the Bayesian perspective, enough to move the needle.

That is obviously false; zero observations will never cause a Bayesian adjustment.

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