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Comment by schimmy_changa | Hacker News Reader

I don't want to feed the trolls, but this requires a response as it is highly misleading.

Cars last 100k+ miles now, and that 13k break-even number in your link is with the current US energy mix, which is rapidly decarbonizing. It is a big deal, and worth moving to EVs.

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Both articles should simply state the lifetime carbon footprint of ICE cars and EVs. That is all that matters in this context - break even mileage and energy efficiency are secondary concerns.

GP’s point though is that the footprint of EVs is constantly changing. ICE cars can only ever work by burning fossil fuels, which inevitably results in a certain amount of emissions per gallon of gas burned. That’s not the case for EVs as the electricity needed for them can be generated in many different ways, some resulting in more emissions than others.

I wonder how much the footprint for ICE changes based on where the crude was sourced from, eg:

- traditional well in the US

- fracking in the US

- offshore

- Canadian tarsands

Edit: This article has some interesting information on Energy Return on Investment (EROI)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151...

It seems that for this analysis using the current and projected fuel mix would make the most sense. There is no option at the pump purchase gas made from offshore crude for example.

The projected energy mix for the next 10-20 years is likely known with some certainty. I suspect that the total carbon footprint of an EV purchased today is something that can be reasonably estimated

Depending on how the battery tech shakes out (such as the million mile battery) EVs may last much longer. Way less parts, regen braking rather than brakes, etc.

There is so much FUD out there from the professional astroturfers and the cranky old amateurs. But EVs will follow the path that solar and wind are: the sheer economics will sweep away ICEs in inexorable fashion.

> Cars last 100k+ miles now

Yes many do. Some are written off in their first year.

The main point is if we all miraculously switched to EVs, there are savings in emissions to be had, but it wont fix the problem.

Nothing "fixes the problem". That is a non-argument. But electric cars are a huge step in the right direction and important in enabling the transition to renewables. Be it only by being a storage by nature.

> electric cars are a huge step in the right direction and important in enabling the transition to renewables

This is the whole problem. Its only a small step forward but people think it'll make a huge difference. Ideally people would move to a small urban apartment and walk or take public transport. EVs let people continue to drive and think they're OK.

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