I think it's absolutely nuts Russia isn't just walking away from this fight. They're fighting a war of choice. Their military is very slowly getting ground down to capture territory they are unable to comprehensively defend.
Realistically, if you were to imagine what the negotiating table looks like at this point, Ukraine is aiming for restoration of its pre-2014 borders--that is recovery of Luhansk and Donetsk, not to mention Crimea. Those terms are almost certainly nonstarters to Russia, but Russia hasn't inflicted sufficient damage on Ukraine to cause them to ask for anything less. For its part, Russia seems determined still to ask for annexation of large parts of Ukraine--they are currently attempting to put together a referendum showing that occupied Kherson wants to be part of Russia (and it seems the current offensive is interfering with their planned timetable--embarrassingly, they might not hold Kherson when the "referendum" is currently planned).
So the only way that Russia is likely to capitulate is if the military situation is so hopeless that it has to admit defeat in the conflict. The military situation has yet to reach that point, though. Instead, we seem to be set for a years-long grinding stalemate as the most likely outcome.
Likely Russian calculus: Fissures in NATO/EU, creation of new fronts (Taiwan, Middle East), and continued madness of US's political and social space are all ticking bombs. It the West that needs to wrap this up quickly, not Russia.
(dated) Likely Western calculus: The European war is intolerable to Chinese (because of BRI plans) and China will lean on Russia to end the war so business can resume. The recent brouhaha over Taiwan however likely has altered the equation.
The sauna I used to visit has closed. It was heated using geothermal energy IIRC, and that energy can practically be used to replace a gas-fired furnace somewhere in the city. So the sauna was closed a few days ago. I'm sad about that.
The Russians didn't have to go without a sauna in the nineties, they suffered this: https://nitter.it/pic/orig/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0std1ZzQUFqWnotL...
A bakery where I bought a bread this week has stated publicly that the selection may be worse during the winter. There'll be enough, just not as varied as until now. Not like this photo, also from Russia: https://nitter.it/pic/enc/bWVkaWEvRllyM0tqSFVJQUVKWGpFLmpwZz...
The Russians may have a great capacity for suffering compared to westerners, and if the suffering coming their way were only what's coming to the western countries, I don't doubt that the Russians would handle it.
Fortunately, the facts on the ground indicate otherwise. Russia's losses in materiel and men are unsustainable and no match for surviving Ukraine's frequent resupply of western military donations. How much more blood and treasure he wastes is really up to Putin, but there's no way he can sustain the losses as his paper tiger turns to ashes.
But they do have a lot of people, and if they're willing to let them die, it'll take a long time to get rid of them.
Western intel estimates 80k total casualties killed & wounded on the Russian side in 6 months in Ukraine.
Interesting. First I've heard of this.
Sounds like Putin wants the large number of casualties to not be in areas where unhappy family members rioting can affect politics.
The West is only giving weapons to the Ukraine, and unfortunately, as good as they may be, they still need boots on the ground to be operated, and Ukraine is bleeding them as fast as Russia.
That's not much of a problem now that Russia won't/can't mobilize “for real”; but were it to come to this end, the long-term perspective wouldn't look so shiny for Ukraine.
Assuming the populations remain unto control from the governments, my informed guess is that the deciding factor between the Ukraine and Russia will be economical, as it had been for all grindfest-wars. And at this game, I wonder what will crumble first: the Russian economy or the Western support to the Ukraine – hopefully the former. In any case, victor or vanquished, the Ukraine will end up gutted by what is probably a good contender for the stupidest war of the 21st century.
Proportionally maybe yes. But count-wise Russians are losing more soldiers than Ukrainians.
If they were to pull out, Ukraine would continue to take back Crimea. They would probably sweep the Russians out of Moldova too. They may plausibly assist in a coup in Belarus. That is to say, Russia doesn't have the ability to walk away without Ukraine hitting them several more times.
Fighting to a loss doesn't actually avoid these outcomes but it... buys time for other shit to happen? An openly pro russian second term for trump in the us, for example.
I think those would be quite unwise.
But the thing is, Russia pulling out might lead to the biggest political prize of all - the end of Putin. He'd lose too much prestige. And he knows it. If he visibly loses, he's done. Therefore, he will keep fighting until others at home remove him, until he wins, or until his military is in such a state that it cannot continue.
Why?
Russia is so full of paranoia and hubris that it considers rejection of "superiority of all things Russia" as evidence of a dire threat. As a not entirely absurd metaphor, Russian imperialism is like Fatal Attraction. Russia referred to Ukrainians as "little Russians". But upon rejecting Putanism and Russia, in favor of Ukrainian language, culture, history, and government - that is to Russia completely unacceptable. The only explanation for rejecting the superiority of Russia is corruption, i.e. Nazification.
Of course this is demented, delusional, crazy, but that's an external assessment. Russia will persist in murdering Ukrainians until Russia is stopped. Nations party to the U.N. Charter are obligated to assist under Article 2(5). And I think China and India aren't doing enough to meet this obligation they've voluntarily and formally agreed to.