Core inflation is +5.9% YoY (lower than expectations)
I expect the Fed to declare "mission accomplished" via a 50 bps hike in September if the Aug CPI print is lower.
I expect the Fed to declare "mission accomplished" via a 50 bps hike in September if the Aug CPI print is lower.
>So what are we going to be looking at? You know, we’ll be looking at the incoming data, as I mentioned, and that’ll start with economic activity. Are we seeing the slowdown that we — the slowdown in economic activity that we think we need, and there is some evidence that we are at this time.
Economic activity data is likely to continue to worsen between now and the September FOMC meeting, so I believe there's a high likelihood that they are opting for +50 bps rather than +75 bps.
This would signal that we are getting close to the end of the tightening cycle. You can see it in the price of risk assets today after the CPI data release - everything is up (markets are forward looking).