I don’t know if polygenetic testing is going to have a significant effect, but if it does, there is going to be a significant generation gap in intelligence, and that will have unpredictable consequences in education and the labor market.
I don’t know if polygenetic testing is going to have a significant effect, but if it does, there is going to be a significant generation gap in intelligence, and that will have unpredictable consequences in education and the labor market.
Its not quite as damaging as 'people are rich because they work harder' but its really not far off
Wealthy people who came from nothing are the exception. Even in places with high degrees of social mobility, climbing the social ladder is a multi-generational saga. Maybe a working class family has a child or two who enter the professional class, then maybe their child has the opportunity for their family to finance a company that goes big, like Dell or Microsoft, or maybe break in as an actor or sports figure. Most likely though, their kids also enter the professional class where the family rolls the dice again the next generation.
Wealth is also correlated with inheriting money...
inheritable traits like intelligence tend to revert to the mean.
> Most rich people are rich because they were born into it.
Both of these can be true at the same time!
Many of those ways happen to be morally questionable at best, and criminal at worst.
An artistic genius is very likely to lose out financially to an averagely intelligent slum landlord no matter how hard they work. Because the opportunities to make money from artistic genius are heavily skewed towards failure, while for slum landlords they're heavily skewed towards success.
The handful of exceptions in the arts are survivor bias. No one hears about the many more failures, by definition.
There is no sense in which wealth is a level playing field. If you're not born into wealth - still the number one way to be wealthy - the most obviously rewarded trait isn't intelligence, it's sociopathy.
The successful ultra-rich are notorious for greed, selfishness, and lack of empathy. Go to any social event for the ultra-rich and you'll find a disproportionate number of criminals, narcissists, and other kinds of damaged people.
Those are the qualities that make someone a "success". IQ certainly helps, but if you lack the pathological motivation to exploit others it's not going to get you far on its own.
If you’re smart enough, you can figure that out.
> If you're not born into wealth - still the number one way to be wealthy - the most obviously rewarded trait isn't intelligence, it's sociopathy.
That becomes more and more true as your society approaches the state of nature that your namesake discussed, but it’s less and less true in free societies, and as a consequence, those free societies become richer societies.
- being able to spot situations that can be exploited has little do do with intelligence. Many smart people never figure that out.
Setting that aside, how does being the son of a guy who owned an emerald mine in South Africa explain him being richer than the descendants of Henry Ford or John D. Rockefeller? How do explain the children of all the other emerald mine owners?
> how does being the son of a guy who owned an emerald mine in South Africa explain him being richer
That's faulty, a posteriori reasoning.
There's no need for any such influence anyway, getting rich from PayPal is already pure luck and you should be satisfied complaining about that!
That is not what you are doing. You are picking a winning lottery number and saying why did this number win and others not? That's faulty logic.
You can’t seriously claim that he was broke while being part of an emerald mining family? Also, why are you comparing him to other rich/er folk? Is your point that every extra million is an IQ point?
I hear a lot about the role of "family wealth", but I never actually hear about mechanism, how exactly it helps. If you're a legacy of a wealthy family, and thanks to that, get into Harvard, then sure, that's a real leg up, but it doesn't explain why some Harvard graduates become billionaires, while overwhelming majority do not. Similarly, if your family is rich enough to invest $1M in your startup, that's surely a huge advantage over regular people, but given how easy it is for non-scions to get $1M in investment funding (and it's really easy), I can scarcely believe that "family wealth" is really such a huge causal factor.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/qj8q8m/admit-your-financial-...
https://gen.medium.com/families-like-mine-rarely-realize-the...
https://spsp.org/news-center/character-context-blog/how-and-...
Unless he was completely estranged from his father for almost his entire adult life, which seems to be the case.
Lottery winners have had no experience in managing wealth, often have had years and decades of being impoverished and wishing for products like jewelry that was always out of reach, and then they get inundated with money. They found that who marshmallow experiment was literally kids who have their needs met aren't rushing to consume what's in front of them and that patience pays off.
You're not making any argument here other than when you're born wealthy you're more likely to be wealthy, and that we know.
>How many of those rated "highly intelligent" (I would be fascinated on how they measured that!) were in an elevated economic group and so now we're reduced to tautology
>They found that who marshmallow experiment was literally kids who have their needs met aren't rushing to consume what's in front of them and that patience pays off.
Yes, this is what they are saying. There are traits that rich people have that seriously help them maintain and acquire wealth.
I'm saying the only traits that rich people have "that seriously help them maintain and acquire wealth" is that they almost exclusively tend to be born to rich people. That's it. That's the trait.
I agree genetics could play a small role, but I think developmental environment is a much larger part of the picture
I'm literally saying the opposite. Rich people nurture and help their children with connections, etc.
>I'm saying the only traits that rich people have "that seriously help them maintain and acquire wealth" is that they almost exclusively tend to be born to rich people. That's it. That's the trait.
This is saying that self control and delayed gratification isn't a trait. It's saying that financial literacy isn't a trait.
At best it's a gross oversimplification that ignores the fact that a huge number of poor people have acquired these traits
And I didn't mean "genetic trait" but rather "behavioral trait." Of course it's available to everyone just more likely to be found where it's been nurtured. There are dandelions growing in the cracks of a sidewalk; it's possible, just harder.
I think another aspect that a lot of discussions miss is a feeling of hope. Rich kids tend to have hope. Very poor kids can feel stuck and hopeless. When you have a child who, at a young age (think five or six, even) doesn't feel hope for their future, they don't try as hard and they're more likely to give up sooner.
Luck can be a bastard like that
More - https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/generational-wealth%3A-why-d...
That said, the grandparent's figure are rather wrong, for two reasons. First is that the heritability of IQ is typically estimated to be around 0.8 instead of 0.5, which means that the expected IQ of parents with IQ of 150 is 140, instead of 125. Second is that this is only the expected IQ. If they have multiple children, some will typically be above the expectation, and some below. More specifically, given standard deviation of 15, around a quarter of children of parents of 150 IQ will have IQ of 150 or higher.
This research is not new, it has been done for many decades now. The word “heritability” has a well established technical meaning.
OF COURSE smart people are more likely than average to become rich! How could it be otherwise, unless the only way to become rich was luck?
Now, some people are born rich! But even if it's just the self-made rich that are smarter than average, and people born rich are exactly average (unlikely as intelligence/attractiveness/etc are at least partly inheritable), that means that rich people are ALSO smarter than average. ('above average' averaged with 'exactly average' is still 'above average')
Or perhaps you can admit that in many cases people have achieved moderate to high wealth in democratic free market societies by either working harder or worker smarter than their peers?
Another reason is luck. My father worked from nothing to owning a house in a nice place because he had a skill that was in demand. He nearly lost it all and is now scraping a living in his 70's, because technology made his skill less valuable. 10 more years of luck he would have retired at 50 and I would have had the advantages...
Someone, mentioned that rich people were better looking. Perhaps they are just healthier, better dressed, and better groomed?
The net result is that the process of getting rich is often a multigenerational effort where each generation does everything they can to give their own children more opportunities than they ever had. And if you talk to the people who do that, they’re often motivated by the experience of being poor and hungry and deprived and being willing to do whatever it takes to give their own kids a better chance. Conversely, if you’re born rich, sometimes you’re complacent and entitled and probably spoiled and lazy. There’s a proverb about how many generations it takes to go from rags to riches and back to rags.
You are correct that the best way to become rich is to be born into a rich family and inherit the wealth (or the opportunities that create wealth). But it is simply false to state that this is the only way, or even the predominate way, in which people become rich in democratic free markets. There are a LOT of small business owners in the US that, are at least on paper, millionaires, and most of these people were not born into rich families. Through my life I've known many wealthy people, and only a handful were born into generational wealth, the majority grew their wealth during economic booms and worked to entrench it so they could survive busts, most by starting a small business in a high-value niche. By global and national standards, many people who are simply professionals and not even business owners, are rich or wealthy, just by being smart with their money. If you own a home and are working a job that pays six figures for your entire career and invest well, you will retire a millionaire without much difficulty, which definitely puts you in the upper quintile in the US.
This fatalistic, defeatist, and frankly infantile attitude from some people that acts as if wealth is only ever granted by random chance and at birth is utterly ridiculous, doesn't help anyone, and is factually incorrect from every angle. Your comment clearly illustrates an understanding of this, but you seem bent on defending the thrust of the comment I was replying to from the other poster.
This is really not true anymore. We have fallen significantly down the list, especially if you look at our economic and political peers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Social_Mobility_Index https://www3.weforum.org/docs/Global_Social_Mobility_Report....
The Wealthy in Florence Today Are the Same Families as 600 Years Ago
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wealthy-in-florence-today-a...
Even in your example, how did they get themselves born into a democratic free market society?
Luck.
Some people really dont like that answer, since it makes them feel vulnerable.
They'd rather blame a victim, and worship a lottery winner than accept that some things are outside their control.
Sure. Your genetics are also luck. But both genetics and being born in a liberal democracy are identifiable variables that have non-random outcomes.
To whatever degree these traits are genetic, you’d expect them to get roughly sorted out to the point where social mobility would decline, but it wouldn’t disappear entirely.
Or corrupt, or given a leg up through connections of ones father or school.
> and the people who decline in position are either stupid or lazy.
Or unlucky. Or got ill.
Your ideas sound very Victorian to me. I have noticed that most people who did get rich assume it is something special about themselves that did it, I'm guessing you are one of them.
I’m talking about broad population-level averages. Maybe you define “luck” as an actual quantifiable trait that measures whether or not you’re blessed by God, but I define luck as a completely random variable that produces noise in the individual case but does not affect population-wide averages.
I’m exaggerating, but anecdotally HN does have this reputation.
Have you thought about the obvious implication that embryo selection with polygenic scoring could be used to lower the gap between genetically privileged types of people you describe and the average couple deciding to apply to procedure?
What's needed: an egalitarian policy & infrastructure allowing any couple to improve the genetic basis of their progeny, perhaps with more of it being provided to genetically disprivileged.
We have an obligation to provide our children and the whole society with an opportunity to live a better life.
> and that will have unpredictable consequences in education and the labor market
The "gap" of single digit amount of IQ points added won't have such effect, but over generations it can compound into a more thoughtful, creative, capable and lively humanity.
Should we deprive ourselves of such possibility due to a generic NIMBY-like market anxiety?
Of course. If we boost an entire generation’s IQ at birth and eventually introduce them into the adult population, what is going to happen is that the boosted generation is going to basically dominate the right hand side of the graph. If you visualize two bell curves superimposed on one another, with one of those curves shifted to the right, then that’s what you’re going to get.
The degree of augmentation is going to make a big difference. During the era of the Flynn effect, we sort of had this happen naturally and we handled it just fine, but a 20 point boost would basically obliterate things.
I’m not necessarily opposed to doing this BTW. I just think it’s going to be extremely disruptive and unpredictable.
> over generations it can compound into a more thoughtful, creative, capable and lively humanity.
Yes, that’s what the original eugenicists thought, too. Here’s the problem, though: what do you do with all of those old and busted natural humans who are less thoughtful, less creative, less capable, less lively? Because those people are really mad that they lost their jobs, and they’re obviously not as intelligent or beautiful or morally good as the new and improved humanity. I mean, all you’ve done was to erase the unfair gap between the below average member of your generation and the above average member of theirs. Those people are all privileged and entitled jerks, and all they’re doing is causing problems.
Oh, did you really think we’d also manage to isolate and eliminate the gene responsible for the human tendency to dehumanize the outgroup? You sweet summer child.
The Flynn effect has not been genetic, and it didn't translate into differences in actual, real-world performance in a way that IQ difference within cohort do.
No, it was developmental, but AFAIK IQ is rather stable once you reach adulthood.
> and it didn't translate into differences in actual, real-world performance in a way that IQ difference within cohort do
Because it was gradual enough that it would be hard to measure, and because the composition of the Western workforce also evolved over the same period of time, making any comparison between generational cohorts virtually impossible.
First though I'd like to see some more resource-sharing of this nature and scale from the rich. Let's see a pilot program or something because I don't see all that much global-scale sharing of the technologies that can most improve life.
When you say things like "deprive ourselves" it's not hard to see that you perceive yourself to be in the group that will benefit either way. Which is fine I think but my life has led me to more easily imagine myself and my descendants on the other side of it.
Yes, we do this. We did this with smallpox vaccination, we’re doing it with polio vaccines, HIV drugs, water purification systems, mobile phone network infrastructure, nets that are treated to protect from malaria-bearing mosquitoes. Sometimes people in rich countries go out of their way to invent technology that gives us no benefit but provides tremendous benefit to people in poorer countries, such as Norman Borlaug’s work. The global poor have become less poor to a much greater degree than the global rich have gotten richer.
Most people think this is not the case only because media is not telling about it, because there is little to tell about really. Except extreme cases like https://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/29/janitor-secretly-amassed-an-...