I'm interested in where you feel the numerical value of "not unlikely" falls on a scale such as the one from Lesson 1 of this article.
https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-l...
https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-l...
This recent paper from Japan estimates the following likelihood for what it calls "extremely large solar flares":
> for 30-, 50-, and 100-year periods to be 0.70−0.76, 0.87−0.91, and 0.98−0.99, respectively
I find much more value in numerical expression when it comes to topics about future events than the fuzzy and loaded English terms we tend to use in casual conversation. I had the wrong impression about your previous message based on my own preconceived notions, and numbers reduce all that.