> Events that present a risk of blowing through your error budget can still be scheduled so they don't page outside of normal hours.
Right, that's why you usually schedule releases over a Tuesday to Thursday (giving you ample rollout/canary/rollback time). You don't schedule on Monday (timezone) or Friday (weekend).
> But there is also big space between "nothing is ever abnormal" and "I had to get up at 2AM twice a month".
Speaking from Google principles, you will never wake up at 2AM because we don't do overnight oncall. We have a split rotation across the globe so there's always someone within waking hours to take care of pages. The real question is what happens between 6am-9am (one timezone) and 6pm-12am (other timezone, at least for my Ireland/New York split team oncall). Obviously you don't do pushes/releases during sketchy periods like I mentioned, and you usually have a "prod freeze" during holiday period (couple of weeks between christmas and new year), but stuff fails for whatever reasons anyway.
I used to work in large datacenter deployment, we'd have sketchy disks that would fail maybe once or twice a week, we'd get paged for certain machines getting stuck in repairs because our automation would fail under certain assumptions. We'd have machines that would go down and never come back up and our automation wouldn't detect that, etc etc. These are all tricky hardware issues that can be made more robust with software, or you get better hardware (some of our old hardware was REALLY bad and would randomly die with seemingly random errors and it took us months to migrate and decommission it properly), etc. These are all problems that one way or another will surface through your SLO budget and can affect how "daring" you can be during planned migrations and new releases, but it's still stuff you need to take care of even outside of work hours.
So, yes, you don't schedule big stuff outside of work hours, but that's not the whole picture either.