Comment by dragontamer | Hacker News Reader

Comment by dragontamer | Hacker News Reader

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> We already buy everything from China. Pretty much everything you own in your home is made in China already, including the computer you're using to browse HN and the router you use to connect to internet. If China and the US severe relationships, the world will go into a depression anyways.

Not as bad as if Taiwan's exports to the USA are stopped.

We can build motherboards / pick-and-place machines in the USA. We literally cannot make the chips that are coming out of Taiwan right now. Samsung is the #2 IIRC, so maybe South Korea can pick up the slack in a hypothetical Taiwan-conflict.

> Intel CEO Pat most certainly finessed the government into giving Intel a huge payout by exaggerating this threat.

US Government is also got TSMC (Taiwan's semiconductor fabs) to build an Arizona fab-lab. Look, even Taiwan is scared of possible conflict and is hedging on the physical safety of the USA.

Hopefully conflict doesn't happen, but the powers that be are making smart moves here. Hopefully it will be enough.

The government and people of Taiwan understand that TSMC is a major reason mainland China hasn't bulldozed their tiny island yet. It's their ace in the hole. They have a monopoly on arguably the most important technology in the world right now, and the US and EU will protect them as long as they hold that monopoly. There's no way they'd actually physically offshore that golden goose. It's a brilliant move by Taiwan, and I highly doubt they'd voluntarily give it up.

> There's no way they'd actually physically offshore that golden goose. It's a brilliant move by Taiwan, and I highly doubt they'd voluntarily give it up.

5nm Fab is being built right now in Arizona though by TSMC. They're beginning to offshore fabs.

Look up any information on "TSMC Fab21".

TSMC's Arizona fab is slated to start 5nm production in 2024. TSMC announced high volume 3nm production, by their Taiwan fabs, by the end of 2022.

TSMC isn't giving up their cutting edge technology, just what will be considered an old node size by 2024.

By the time the fab is done 5nm won't be cutting edge anymore.

It will be if China invades Taiwan. They will not be able to keep the TSMC facility in business for very long, assuming it survives the attack to begin with.

Where life will get interesting is in South Korea, at the Samsung fab. They will have the only 3-nm process in the world if TSMC goes away.

I'd assume TSMC chose the practical optimum there: given current events, having all leading fans physically in Taiwan was no longer a tenable option.

So they re-balanced for a volume play.

If some (read: national security volume) fabs in EU / US are enough to assuage governments, but most (read: global economically important volume) are still in Taiwan, then that's the next best thing.

"US Government is also got TSMC (Taiwan's semiconductor fabs) to build an Arizona fab-lab. Look, even Taiwan is scared of possible conflict and is hedging on the physical safety of the USA."

I don't think that's the case, as I understand it this comes from the US wanting to onshore some of TSMC's capabilities and Taiwan screwing up electricity production on the island.

It does Taiwan the government and ruling class no good whatsoever to place assets beyond the PRC's military reach, rather the incentives are entirely opposite of that. The more valuable TSMC's fab lines there are, the more incentive the US has to help with the ROC's defense, or war if it comes to that. Which in the case of torpedoes from attack subs can even be done with some plausible deniability.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmcs-arizona-fab-construc...

The TSMC factory in Arizona is full speed ahead. Its literally in Arizona right now, undergoing construction / hiring / spinning up.

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