Intel, who hasn’t shipped anything using EUVL, plans to be two years ahead of TSMC, within two years.
How is that realistic?
Intel, who hasn’t shipped anything using EUVL, plans to be two years ahead of TSMC, within two years.
How is that realistic?
Even TSMC expects Intel to get back on track in a few years because, again, they started investing again. Please note Intel is about to get huge subsidies from the US (~50b) and EU (~20b) real soon. It's free money for their precious fabs and R&D. I am very much against the EU giving them anything but a kick in the nuts but oh well, gotta keep the US and Israel happy
I'm 100% against tax payer funded chip fabs. It's just a handout to huge corporations.
Already happening: https://semianalysis.substack.com/p/intel-cuts-fab-buildout-...
Also, look for huge executive bonuses in the near future.
The gov't is specifically paying for new fabs that are already being built.
Not to mention this is a national security issue given the possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
You can offset internal Rd investment with gov money and use that elsewhere, sure, but when the magnitudes are large and immediate, that doesn't play. You get one check, and it better be spent on the intended cause in X fiscal years or you pay it back.
The tech community has suffered under the Cost Plus and other workaround bullshit for long enough that the cynicism is inbred. But there's plenty of gov funded RD money that does precisely what it was invested to do.
To put it another way, it’s similar to the futility of those well-meaning people who give some homeless person $5 on the express condition that they spend those $5 on food, not on alcohol or drugs. Which said homeless person is all too happy to do, he/she will gladly spend those gifted $5 on food, which leaves the other hipotethical $5 which he/she had in their pocket all available for buying drugs or alcohol, money which otherwise would have been spent probably half and half (2.50 on food, 2.50 on drugs).
At least in the counter-example I gave the result of largesse is a homeless person better fed, which is good (and also more intoxicated, which is not so good), but in this example with Intel you have taxpayers filling the pockets of one of the biggest tech companies in the world.
I cannot claim authority over all instances of gov funding, but I have managed funds from the government for Rd use and they absolutely do audit, and they absolutely do require an accounting down to the last penny, and they absolutely do review plans vs actions. And they absolutely do get refunds for money not spent. And, critically, they absolutely do shutdown follow on funding if they do not like what they see.
Intel CEO Pat most certainly finessed the government into giving Intel a huge payout by exaggerating this threat.
If we don’t gain that capability now, it will take us too long to recover when push actually comes to shove.
I'm not sure that's entirely true. If we define "most advanced nodes" as 5nm-class fabrication, certainly Intel is doing that well now, just not in volume production. Intel 4 based Meteor Lake powered on and runs Windows as of earlier this year.
No capability to build and not ready for volume manufacturing aren't really the same class of problem.
Anyways, I think the CHIPS Act was the right move at the right time. SMIC is quickly catching up thanks to near unlimited funding from the Chinese government. We need to play the same game if we ever want to catch up to TSMC.
Regardless, I’d go further and argue that we should be building up the capability to manufacture our own EUV lithography machines.
As far as I am aware, it’s the exact opposite: over the years, ASML licensed some of their patents to US companies.
[1] https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/how-china-could-leapfrog-us-ch...
If you think about it, ASML wouldn’t be this critical to semiconductor fabrication if it didn’t control the patents for its core tech.
Not as bad as if Taiwan's exports to the USA are stopped.
We can build motherboards / pick-and-place machines in the USA. We literally cannot make the chips that are coming out of Taiwan right now. Samsung is the #2 IIRC, so maybe South Korea can pick up the slack in a hypothetical Taiwan-conflict.
> Intel CEO Pat most certainly finessed the government into giving Intel a huge payout by exaggerating this threat.
US Government is also got TSMC (Taiwan's semiconductor fabs) to build an Arizona fab-lab. Look, even Taiwan is scared of possible conflict and is hedging on the physical safety of the USA.
Hopefully conflict doesn't happen, but the powers that be are making smart moves here. Hopefully it will be enough.
5nm Fab is being built right now in Arizona though by TSMC. They're beginning to offshore fabs.
Look up any information on "TSMC Fab21".
TSMC isn't giving up their cutting edge technology, just what will be considered an old node size by 2024.
Where life will get interesting is in South Korea, at the Samsung fab. They will have the only 3-nm process in the world if TSMC goes away.
So they re-balanced for a volume play.
If some (read: national security volume) fabs in EU / US are enough to assuage governments, but most (read: global economically important volume) are still in Taiwan, then that's the next best thing.
I don't think that's the case, as I understand it this comes from the US wanting to onshore some of TSMC's capabilities and Taiwan screwing up electricity production on the island.
It does Taiwan the government and ruling class no good whatsoever to place assets beyond the PRC's military reach, rather the incentives are entirely opposite of that. The more valuable TSMC's fab lines there are, the more incentive the US has to help with the ROC's defense, or war if it comes to that. Which in the case of torpedoes from attack subs can even be done with some plausible deniability.
The TSMC factory in Arizona is full speed ahead. Its literally in Arizona right now, undergoing construction / hiring / spinning up.
why? isn't it in the interest of the EU to not be dependent on China for chips, if they take over Taiwan to corner that market?
We don't know how good Intel 18A is yet. It could be equivalent or only slightly better than TSMC's N3E or further enhancements of TSMC 3N. Keep in mind that the base TSMC N3 node is scheduled for volume production in Q4 2022. So the TSMC is still likely quite ahead.
This is all assuming that everything goes well for Intel. If 18A is simply better than TSMC N3E, then TSMC won't have anything to compete until 2025 - 2026 when they release N2.
For TSMC, they have real paying customers that need to plan years ahead so all their date estimates are very conservative. For Intel, they're desperately trying to catch up so they're much more aggressive in their estimates.
According to Anandtech, TSMC's N2 could come in 2025 if things go well, which is roughly the same as 18A. So basically, if things go PERFECTLY for Intel, they'd be in the lead for a few quarters - not 2 years like you said.
Intel will be the first customer of ASML's post/next-gen EUVL systems:
* https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2022/intel-and-a...
* https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496925-asml-fuelling-intel...
TSMC also has extensive experience with these machines compared to Intel.
Pat is just making shit up and hoping their stock price doesn’t crater even more.
I would be curious to read the article again in 2025.