The minimum battery warranty for an EV in the US is 8 years or 100k miles[1], and crowdsourced reports of battery degradation over time suggest that (at least for Tesla vehicles) it is not a major issue; range loss averages out to around 11% at 200k miles[2], which is the expected EOL for most ICE vehicles[3]. There are anecdotal reports of high-mileage EVs running on the same battery for over 350k miles[4] and 620k miles[5] without issue.
[0] https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/02/how-old-are-cars/
[1] https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/evaluati...
[2] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c3m9wqlxPBo8ziDYVm5c...
[3] https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-mil...
[4] https://insideevs.com/news/342457/this-tesla-model-x-90d-cov...
[5] https://jalopnik.com/one-tesla-model-s-has-gone-nearly-1-mil...
1. There are only 9 data points for only 1 brand of EVs on that sheet. This is essentially anecdotal data. There are 10 data points (just as many) of batteries under 80% of capacity with varying mileages. What happened with those? As a consumer, I don't want to get bad luck of the draw and be one of those.
2. The 1 million mile Tesla is on its 3rd battery pack. It's not a valid observation. At best we can surmise that a battery pack can last roughly ~333,333 miles under good conditions. But this is still a premium vehicle (P85) that is out of reach of most consumers with a large battery pack.
What would the numbers be for a Nissan 45 kWh pack for example? If it's roughly half of 333k, then it's not as impressive anymore. Maybe 1/3 of that?
The biggest issue though is that EVs still carry a substantial premium above ICE vehicles, which can only be realized in savings over a long period of high gasoline prices ($5+).
Yes.
> How much does that cost including all parts and labor as a percentage of the vehicle's value?
I think you are overestimating the time it take to replace a battery with appropriate equipment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23qFN9sLjVU
Initially only leased batteries were available, so there is still a lot of people with leased batteries, and batteries get swapped for free when capacity drop below 75%.
The trick is that the battery capacity rarely go below 75%.
Battery replacement is something very rare (which make leasing a bad deal), 10 years laters there is still very few peoples that peoples that made their car batteries replaced.
A 2002 model year Toyota 4Runner in decent running condition still retains significant value today, and can be easily repaired with commonly available parts. In 2042, will we be able to say the same about any EV being sold today?
What actually happened: a cottage industry for repairing the battery packs sprung up to meet demand or when they'd fail, which wasn't that often (and indeed, Hybrid Camrys became the standard taxi cab in a number of US cities, racking up hundreds of thousands of miles on their batteries.) There are shops all around the country that do cell replacement now and getting your hybrid battery pack serviced is less painful than a lot of major engine repairs.
Bolt EVs were (in large part due to GM's extremely conservative charge profiles for DCFC) seeing much less battery degradation than expected. Right up until the manufacturing defects reared their head...and GM has replaced all the batteries, giving them a very long warranty...8, maybe 10 years? I forget which.
> If ev's ever come down in price
You can buy several EV models new for under $30k, which is substantially less than the median car price in the US.
Speaking of Bolts, two years ago you could buy one with 30k miles on it for $15-18k. Can't now!
The argument that EV's are too expensive based solely off the purchase price while ignoring everything else gets tiresome. My take is lower maintenance costs and depreciation beats out the difference between the cost of electricity vs gas. 5 cents/mile vs 12-15 cents a mile. That's only 7 to 10 cents/mile difference. EV's cost less to run even if gasoline were free.
And speaking of, would you dare buy a used ev car? You probably are talking at least 10K for a ten year old EV, and then if the battery is shot, and you now have to dump another 8K at least. Used EVs, imo, are a risky purchase.
Unless you have some electrical breakdown or something like that many batteries that we are building now can easily last 20+ years.