Which "conservatives" said Russia wouldn't invade? The realist view of IR is, largely, the conservative one -- and many conservatives were saying Russia was strongly inclined to engage in this sort of politics.
I have no idea what you're talking about. This just seems like apologetics for conspiracy theories.
"'They said' X was a conspiracy, and it isnt! When I say Y is, soon you'll find out it isnt too!".
Well 'They' didnt say it was; these mythologies of persecution reveal a lot.