It seems unlikely that we'll be able to sustain the same level of air travel once we're no longer able to rely on cheap fossil fuels for it. I suspect air travel will get a lot more expensive and less common.
high-speed rail works perfectly (though there's an obvious chicken and egg problem, because setting up a new airport is relatively trivial compared to building HSR connections between points of interest, but networks effects do matter, if there's an already good network it makes sense to connect new cities)
and for long haul flights the convenience will still make a lot of people pay for it.
plus, if society wants to subsidize it, we could. (like the US already does for certain routes.)
Why would that happen?
https://www.worldometers.info/oil/
47 years of oil left given current reserve estimates, I'd bet my life there's a couple of centuries left at least
Interesting top 11:
1 Venezuela 299,953,000,000 18.2% sanctions/attempted coup
2 Saudi Arabia 266,578,000,000 16.2% strategic ally (petrodollar)
3 Canada 170,863,000,000 10.4% neighbour
4 Iran 157,530,000,000 9.5% sanctions/coup
5 Iraq 143,069,000,000 8.7% invaded
6 Kuwait 101,500,000,000 6.1% friendly relations
7 U.A.E 97,800,000,000 5.9% friendly relations
8 Russia 80,000,000,000 4.8% sanctions/global rival
9 Libya 48,363,000,000 2.9% bombed/destabilized
10 Nigeria 37,070,000,000 2.2% friendly?
11 United States 35,230,000,000 2.1% *ahem*See https://www.adamsmith.org/research/the-no-breakfast-fallacy for more background.
https://www.enapter.com/newsroom/reaching-price-parity-of-gr...
A lot of people are going to die of heat in the next month. That number will double every year until we address it decisively.
That’s not counting on eco-terrorism which will likely anticipate a lot of the reaction.
- Sea level rises leading to widespread flooding of vulnerable cities (and some particularly low-lying island countries too).
- Severe droughts and water shortages in desertous areas. Some of which may not have been desertous before.
- General weather changes (both reduced rainfall and increased rainfall) leading to disruptions in food production supply chains.
All of which will likely lead to significant political pressure to mitigate further disruption.
A lot of activists and governments have started responding (banning ICE cars in 2025, 2030, and 2035). My belief is that most will have increasingly strict rules because they will see increasingly obvious droughts, heatwaves, and hurricanes—that’s the part where I’m less sure about.
There are people and politicians who are delusional, so anything can happen. I expect them to move and be more popular in areas where the consequence will be dire soon.
There are people who protest and see no change. Them, and people who lose everyone they care about in climate-related disasters, will most likely resort to violence: this has already started with people attaching themselves with concrete to a highway or deflating tires of SUVs in London. That group is organized and they don’t feel heard. That much has happened and I can testify that it’s not blaming down. I believe that this will lead to more violence, notably targeted assassinations.
I'm not so sure about that