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I feel like the "CO" part of this gets overlooked a lot.

E.g. "I'm eating fewer calories but in an unhealthy fashion and am now tired all the time and so I'm more sedentary" sorta things.

Is there a really reliable way of estimating total calories burned in a day that's based on direct individual observation vs averages and such?

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Track how many calories you are eating. If your weight is stable, you are burning that many. It is literally that simple. If you reduce calories, you will lose weight. If you increase them, you will gain weight.

Individual metabolism makes a difference here, as does body composition.

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