they will not because the reason japan (and the US) lost theirs is that china was cheap.
Where are you going to get this type of labour - skilled but cheap - other than china, in the next 10-30 years? Southeastern asian countries could make up some of the amount, but if they could do it today, they would've dominated already!
The repatriation of manufacturing is political propaganda - it won't work economically, as consumers' preferences is overwhelmingly for cheap goods, not expensive patriotism.
Another scenario: Automation makes labor costs less relevant.
Anyway, it's happening already. Tons of news articles covering it lately. For instance: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-factory-boom-heats-up-as-ceos...
> but if they could do it today, they would've dominated already
Weird logic. I don't follow.
There's no indication that the manufacturing capacity could be taken over by a south-eastern asian country. If they could do so, why is it not done today, rather than in the future (when china loses their manufacturing capacity)?
So the world will only move out of China if other countries like India can offer significantly lower cost at same quality, which they haven't been able to do, or if there are significant geopolitical risks to staying, which seems likelier by the day.
I don’t think companies are going to fully leave the Chinese market or anything. That wouldn’t make any sense. But divest their exposure and locate factories all around the world because of the risk due to concentration? Yea definitely.