Edit: it's this one https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101889805/the-james-webb-tele...
This could still turn out to be a big disappointment if it goes offline within the year.
I wonder how hard it is to launch a shield to protect it.
Even if this continues at roughly the same rate, the telescope will continue to function within the initial design specification for at least another year or two, and will be far from "offline within a year".
You can't extrapolate anything from a single event. It could have just been bad luck. If another one happens this year - then it's worth some concern.
The JWST performance report[1] says on page 18/19: "It is not yet clear whether the May 2022 hit to segment C3 was a rare event (i.e. an unlucky early strike by a high kinetic energy micrometeoroid that statistically might occur only once in several years), or whether the telescope may be more susceptible to damage by micrometeoroids than pre-launch modeling predicted."
[1]: https://www.stsci.edu/files/live/sites/www/files/home/jwst/d...
We'll know more in a few months.
This would be a >95% reduction in lifespan. I'm really curious what source suggests anything close to such a colossal failure in the predicted meteoroid environment.