However, I'm optimistic on the long term because I think only recessions can correct the (massive) mis-allocation of capital that we experienced the past decade due to ultra-low interest rates.
However, I'm optimistic on the long term because I think only recessions can correct the (massive) mis-allocation of capital that we experienced the past decade due to ultra-low interest rates.
I have no debt, a fully paid off house, and plenty of cash which has left me feeling confident about any upcoming recession.
Could I get fired from my well-paying job tomorrow, the recession lasts for 5 years, and the food supply runs out so we all starve to death? Sure, but it’s probably not worth calling out.
I was in college during the 2008 recession and fully supporting myself. I was able to get by with less than I have now because I didn’t have a ton of debt.
I made a comparison between 2007 and now, while you just stated ignorance of the past and made pessimistic assertions of my ability to estimate relative security.
Meanwhile you hold a belief like, "the future will be good because capital will be allocated better"
I hold the belief that the LONG term future will be good because capital will be allocated better.
Do not see the conflict between these 2 statements. Also I was 17 in 2007, not sure if it's called ignorance but I didn't understand much of the economic environment at the time.
> Meanwhile you hold a belief like, "the future will be good because capital will be allocated better"
Yes
What part of my comment do you disagree with exactly? That people, in general, overestimate their financial security and capacity to overcome recessions?
> First of all, the recessions tend to last longer than most people expect/plan for. Statistically, it will turn out their 'secure' jobs will be less 'secure' than expected. Meanwhile their emergency funds will start shrinking (slowly at first, then all at once) due to loss of purchasing power & eventual job loss.
Those predictions are not supported by the data, and are distinct from your description of them. I disagree with your implied statistics and sloppy use of words. I am skeptical that you can forecast the length of the recession, job loss, or changes in consumer behavior.
> I disagree with your implied statistics and sloppy use of words.
No problem if you disagree, it would be nice if you elaborate your point though. What exactly do you expect from a recession? What does your data say?
I'd also like to point out that Economics is not really an exact science, even with a ton of data at hand the predictions that economists make are wrong quite often. Specially during the past 2-3 years predictions have been quite bad - fiscal/monetary stimulus doesn't add much to inflation, if it does it will be transitory etc. That's one of the reasons we're in this mess.
so no statistics or experience
On the other hand, there is no guarantee whatsoever that capital will be better allocated after a downturn. After all, 2008 came post-2001, and here we are post-2008, with capital as misallocated as ever!
Very few jobs are truly secure ever. Your company can avoid being impacted by the macroeconomic situation of a particular recession or financial crisis, but that doesn't mean you won't be fired or laid off or need to quit your job, then find a new one in a less than great job market.
I've been through layoffs at more economically sound companies where the leadership decided something had to be done to mollify shareholder anxiety about the larger economic situation. I've been through layoffs at companies where the writing was on the wall (especially in retrospect).
I worked with somebody who developed a major health problem during our time as coworkers. He had to quit because he couldn't do the work until that was squared away. It took him years to be well enough to work again, and by then he needed to live near family in a lower wage/higher cost of living area that still scrambled his financial plans.
Most of us have worked at a company where a new boss came in, and some people just didn't get along with them or didn't see eye-to-eye on whatever or otherwise couldn't work there anymore. Or where there's a reorg and suddenly the work isn't a match anymore.
Everyone should be prepared at any time. If fear of recession gets folks thinking about that, great. But they should do it regardless.
I think the mis-allocation is due to rates not rising fast enough after the crisis is over. Terrifyingly fast to drop and equally terrifying (in retrospect) how slow they rise.
Do I have sufficient funds to survive for a while in a typical recessionary environment? Yes. If the shit really hits the fan, markets crash to next to nothing, real estate craters, etc and this lasts for multiple years well yeah. I'm in trouble. But that'll be true of just about everyone and we're probably looking at general societal collapse at that point.
Just to give some examples of a recession being worse that one expects:
- I might need to sell my 4-bedroom house and move into a smaller house because I can't afford mortgage;
- I might need to skip vacations this year because I got a pay cut;
- I have to sell my car and use public transport because I need money and gas is too expensive anyway;
IMO these are situations people are not generally anticipating or prepared for.It's also worth bearing in mind that when unemployment is high, there are many companies that stop or slow hiring, sticking with current staff. Many fewer are hiring at all. If there is 10% unemployment, you'd expect the number of available jobs to shrink by much more than 10% vs full employment. Losing your job compounds because finding a new one at all or at least a new one that pays the same can be harder.
Predicting the future is always challenging. But preparing for a range of unknown outcomes is often doable.