Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD.
Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ??
It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.
Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ??
It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.
In fairness, this is just another in the long line of ridiculous things that he is prone to saying.
The tech is all right, and I got to try auto pilot at a discount. Unfortunately the phantom braking made AP completely useless with passengers who would freak out and complain. However, when it worked it was quite nice but I ended up using it way less than I'd hoped. Glad I didn't pay 12k for it!
The best part of owning the car was the insane acceleration and supercharger network at the beginning. But, that got annoying as more people started getting Teslas. Going on longer trips meant a ton of anxiety especially since some superchargers in cities would be packed. Worse, some would be out of order or slow charging. After the gimmick wore off, wasting 45 minutes to go another 2-3 hours started becoming annoying. And before someone asks why 2-3 hours, its called hills. California is full of them, and especially where I live I lose so much efficiency climbing hills.
Anyway overall I'd rate the car 5/10. Fastest car I've ever owned. Beyond that it was pretty much exactly as they described - a beta product. I'll probably try a Tesla again in 5-10 years.
I live in the Rocky Mountains so I can relate about the hills, but haven't noticed a big range deficit from them. Probably because every uphill has a corresponding downhill and regen braking can recover some of the uphill energy loss. What I notice much more is wind. Driving fast into a headwind entails a huge energy loss (proportional to your airspeed cubed--yikes!) and it cannot be recovered. OTOH driving with a tailwind can add significant range.
I've also not noticed much of a problem finding open superchargers but that might be because I mostly drive in "flyover country." The supercharger network has also expanded significantly just in the 18 months I've had the car.
They'll get eclipsed by other electric car manufacturers real quick.
Edit: more specifically, the parts break and they are difficult to replace. The battery degrades. They stopped providing maps to the vehicle unless I'm willing to spend several hundred dollars to replace the media console, they've told me I'm covered by a recall/warranty but have been unable to schedule the appointment.
I agree. As a former owner. They are fun to show. But there are real annoyances. In the case of the Model 3 in particular, I quickly tired of the door handles. The psychotic windshield wipers. No CarPlay. The smartphone unlocking which worked most of the time until just that moment when your hands were full. It became a chore to live with. But dear god was it fast (I had the Performance trim). Not enough. I need my daily driver to not be a PITA.
I'm very interested in what the competition is doing. Ford one-upped the Model Y by putting that knob on the display and then adding another display in front of the driver. Most of the competitive EVs have real interiors, for that matter. All of them have CarPlay. Porsche made a legit sports car.
The future looks bright!
Until the windshield wipers are solved, I would not expect the FSD. SotA deep learning models are not good enough to control that function yet.
* What are your current top alternative make / models?
* If you have some you're tracking, which make / models are you most anticipating?
I'm keeping an eye on Kia, VW, Hyundai right now. But I expect other manufacturers will catch up.
But oof, the web site is just terrible. I can't imagine the effort that went into that car and then have it be paired with what they've come up with there.
I hope that competition rises to the level of Tesla on the product presentation / ordering side as well.
> Parts break difficult to replace
I think I had a set of squeaky control arms that Tesla replaced under warranty in less than a week, free of charge. I don’t remember because it was such a nonissue.
Side swiped by another driver; dented my fender, bumper, smashed the headlight. Their insurance took fault, Tesla certified body shop gave estimate and fixed in less than a week (from the time dropped off).
> The battery degrades
Knew this going in. What battery doesn’t? Still comfortably road-tripping and camping with the family in my car.
> They stopped providing maps
Huh? I receive updates every time my car updates which is often. I’m guessing you’re talking the an older Model S.
> Recall/warranty and unable to schedule appointment
I’ve scheduled 5+ appointments with Tesla service center or mobile service through the app. Never been an issue.
On top of all that, my car is worth more now than it was when I bought it. Everyone in my family that drives the car loves it. The car turns heads and generates questions on the daily for 3+ years now. My young daughter’s friends still lose their mind when she gets picked up in the Model 3. It’s almost like owning a supercar without the price tag or the inconvenience.
So I guess different people have different experiences. But this is the first car I’ve ever wanted to drive until it dies.
Oh, and FSD certainly IS NOT worth it. And I doubt it will be anytime soon. :)
It was awesome in 2015. It's a pain in the ass in 2022.
example: I live in Houston and needed to go to Dallas for a work trip.
If my wife weren't using our Tesla that week (she drove it to Tennessee), I would have driven there (200-ish miles). I've done 1000+ mile trips with the Model 3 with zero issues, all because of "FSD."
Despite having another car that I really love, driving long distances manually is rough on me. So instead, I took an Uber Black both ways, flew, and rented a car in Dallas. (I expensed the UberX rate, so I paid the rest out of pocket. We are an hour from the airport.)
Convenient, but I still missed the Tesla.
With that said, yes I agree, highway driving with Autopilot is worth somewhere on the order of $1-2k to me personally. It’s made long highway drives a lot more pleasant — just used it this past July 4th for 500+ miles of highway driving.
It's a real shame because in principle having a manufacturing facility making great electric cars in the bay area would be a real win. Musk's reality distortion field is cracking.
As for luxury, quality, ride comfort - they’re just ok
What's shocking is how many people interpreted it literally--that the value is literally zero without self-driving--as if the successful EV business is in fact unsuccessful.
Like, at least give one metric on which they are measurably “the best”.
I've heard good things about the Kia Niro, VW ID.4, and Hyundai Kona as well.
My family has a Tesla and they seem to be very happy with it. I’ve driven in it and it seems really nice, maybe not exceptional but not bad.
I do have to say though, the Lidar and self-driving is glitchy and kind of gimmicky. But the fact they’re electric makes them worth it regardless.
i friggin love our model 3. two years and almost 60,000 miles in!
i want to get the model s refresh and be a two tesla household, but my pay needs to go up a little :)
But are the financials of the company also real ? The prospects of future products ? Robotaxis, FSD, Cybertruck, Semi ?
The range of models is also much wider in terms of affordability. In Europe, we've reached the point where an EV is just another car, and even the cheaper ones have tons of clever bells and whistles like 360 cameras.
Now, it's true that they're the biggest single BEV _brand_ in Europe (and second-biggest in China), but that's... basically just a different marketing approach. VW Group has multiple constituent brands mostly selling largely the same thing (SEAT/SKODA/Scania/Cupra/VW/Audi); it's no skin off their nose if someone buys a VW id3 or a Cupra Born (these are the same thing).
But in absolute numbers it will not be easy to catch up, as batteries are a limiting factor.
Energy efficiency in modern EV brands also isn't very good, which requires putting more battery (and weight) into the car. (perhaps excluding Hyundai Ioniq-s)
Combined with fast scaling of the car production + high price of lithium batteries, this will limit how many cars can be produced or increase the car price for the consumer.
This may change if manufacturers will start improving efficiency or building battery factories for themselves. Which I think only VW is currently planning to do
https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Y...
So far in 2022 Tesla is fourth, just behind Hyundai (Hyundai's brands are Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis).
For the first 5 months of 2022 there were 500,000 BEVs sold in Europe with Tesla 3 and Y accounting for a little over 60,000. [1]
There is a tidal wave of competing offerings and Tesla will soon be on the sidelines.
[1]: https://insideevs.com/news/594688/europe-plugin-car-sales-ma...
That said...I would bet on koreans too.
But in itself, just making on of the best electric cars today would justify a valuation of 1/10 of what Tesla currently have.
I still admire Musk and Tesla for having started the electric revolution. But by 2025 (and maybe already are), they will just be one of many electric car manufacturers - somewhere in the middle of the pack.
The comment you were replying to definitely seemed quite a bit incoherent with their personal take on what hostile takeovers actually mean.
Life is not only about work. I stepped down from the company I funded after 14 years, it never stopped growing after that. Some people just get bored after doing one thing for a long time and want to explore other areas, especially if they always had broad interests.
> It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.
I seriously doubt that my Model S will somehow stop working so well and turn out to be just a fake car after 5 years.
I say that I must be imagining that I’ve actually been driving an EV for the past four years.
I must’ve dreamt having to drive only 2 hours out of a 12 hour road trip.
Bugs? Yea. Some really dangerous ones we all have read about. Manufacturing defects? Yup! Missed Deadlines? Hell yeah.
But a fraud? Nope.
But did Theranos customers were thinking they were a fraud ? Nope - they were getting their blood test results done, although not in a way Theranos advertised.
Of course the Tesla cars are not a fraud - they are actually pretty good - and for a long time they were the only EV out there. But it's no longer a case, and they are just becoming one of the 50 EV car makers out there.
And Elon seems to know it - that's why he's insisting that the entire company insane valuation is tied to FSD, or whatever other futuristic product he can imagine.
What I mean is that it's a fraud because it's an (maybe a bit above) average EV car making company, but it's CEO and the company itself insists it has extremely advance technology and products - which for now, doesn't exist. As a result, it's $ valuation is higher than most other car makers combined.
Nobody would care about the slipped FSD timelines if they hadn’t paid for it. Tesla’s mistake was charging for it.
I chose not to pay for it since I knew his estimates were rubbish. But most don’t. Doesn’t mean It’s fraud. They have been working on it. And you can see it in people’s cars.
I paid for it (€2500 or 3000 I don't remember) and I'm not stressed. I have the world's best "autopilot" (EAP) already in my 5 years old car and it's getting better and better.
Other vendors would have sold me a parking heater at that price (or higher).
The Model Y was recently the best-selling car regardless of technology (i.e. overall best-selling passenger car) in several countries. Most notably, last month in China.
It was always the case.