Comment by jgrahamc | Hacker News Reader

Comment by jgrahamc | Hacker News Reader

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The most successful analysts, Naquin said, are something like the heroine of the crime novel "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," a quirky, irreverent computer hacker who "knows how to find stuff other people don't know exists."

Who writes this stuff? Sure, Lisbeth Salander is a hacker, but 'quirky'? 'irreverent'? FFS If you'd read the books you'd know that she was a poor woman who'd been hideously abused. Or is that what the AP means by 'quirky'?

Also, give that this is an article about 'open source' intelligence (open source as in public), how is Salander and her ability to find things people don't know exist even relevant? This is the modern equivalent of analysts getting copies of Pravda and reading them, only with a citizen-reporting element added in.

Those with a masters' degree in library science and multiple languages, especially those who grew up speaking another language, "make a powerful open source officer," Naquin said.

Yeah, just like Salander. (And, BTW, AP it's master's degree not masters' degree---you can check in the AP Manual if you like).

Naquin is just circle jerking. I very highly doubt they knew exactly what was going to happen in Egypt, and their ability to see the future is more of a hindsight bias than anything. I believe this will become more evident as more serious events go by in the US, and will be proven when the US doesn't act with a sort of sixth sense to these serious events.

Anyone can see that freedom fighters and protest organizers will use distributed technologies, because frankly they can't afford or manage a centralized technology. This has its trade offs, but it's easy, cheap, and fast.

The only thing it is lacking is verifiability, and in many cases this is an asset not a detriment. When things are easy, cheap and fast you can crowd source verification so that if someone tweets out, "The rioters at $local_location have turned violent and are burning down the $city", everyone there can verify this and drown out the propaganda and rumors relatively quickly.

So the first part of his statement isn't so much of a surprise. It's like saying, "The next political revolution will take advantage of electricity." It's very obvious.

So really, what we are evaluating is can they predict unrest in Egypt reliably using Twitter and tweet content. I believe it's possible. Take for example, that calmness can predict the stock market[1]. Or pronouns can be used to predict any number of things[2]. Is it possible that the CIA can watch for shifts in calmness to anxiety or shifts in the number of pronouns used in reference to a particular leader and measure the likely hood of political uprising? That seams plausible to me.

[1]http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/10/twitter-crystal-ba... [2]http://secretlifeofpronouns.com/

I agree that social media such as Twitter can be used to evaluate the general mood of locations, but it still won't allow an all seeing eye effect. Probabilities aren't absolutes.

I felt like Naquin was circle jerking with what he was doing, the article gave the distinct feeling that Naquin thinks he can predict the events of the future, just not the when.

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