I’m reading the same book. I think what Peter misses with regards to energy is that roughly 40% of ocean shipments are moving fossil energy around [1]; if you move to renewables, a lot of shipping goes away. China currently generates more power from renewables than all of Europe [2], and the CCP seems to be aware of how foundational cheap, reliable energy is to their economic prospects. They have the will and government system to dictate their energy transformation.

Demographics will cause rapid economic growth deceleration in developed and almost developed countries (China’s TFR hit a low of 1.15 last year and continues to decline [3]), and “the order” will change as globalization somewhat reverses, but this is all opportunity imho (shipping declines but reshoring increases for security and resilience reasons, see manufacturing and semiconductors).

[1] https://qz.com/2113243/forty-percent-of-all-shipping-cargo-c...

[2] https://archive.ph/2022.06.30-103521/https://www.bloomberg.c...

[3] https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220531-why-chinas-popul...