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> It's being used by the Ukrainian military to pay their suppliers while the banking system is offline

Ukraine's banking system is both online and functional:

https://kyivindependent.com/hot-topic/ukraines-banking-mirac...

Regarding donations to Ukraine, the total value of donations to Ukraine has been around $900M so far [1], of which only $7M has been in crypto (according to your WSJ article), so less than 1%.

1. https://fortune.com/2022/04/15/how-much-donated-ukraine-war/...

> only $7M has been in crypto

Vitalik alone donated $5M. https://fortune.com/2022/04/08/vitalik-buterin-ukraine-donat...

This page says $60M has been donated to one specific organization https://donate.thedigital.gov.ua/

Here's another one that says they've collected $9M https://unchain.fund/

I'm sure there are others.

That's not true for PHub -- Just went to confirm and the first option is bank transfer, the second is crypto. What percentage of people who pay for PHub do you think even own crypto? My guess would be <1%.

There's no way in any number of Hells that I'd trust PornHub with my banking info.

Right - as a commenter on a technical forum - how much overlap do you think there is between yourself and the age/infosec knowledge/technical savvy of the type of person who pays for PHub in 2022?

Doesn't really make much of a difference; "only give your banking info to those you highly trust and only if it's absolutely necessary" has been common sense for longer than the Internet has existed.

You mean your name and bank account number?

Those are basic for doing business. People share them with everybody they deal with.

Is it? Cause a lot of stuff still happens by check even now, which literally has your name and your account and routing numbers just printed on it, which you used to order by sending all of that information via the mail to a random printing company.

I already have to trust my power company, most of my credit cards, my ISP, my gas company, and my landlord with my bank info, all of which are probably less secure and trustworthy than Pornhub...

Sure, but a check is at least ostensibly ephemeral (even if there's nothing preventing someone from jotting down the account/routing number), and there are legal protections against using that info for transactions other than that consented to on the check (hence the signature and memo line and such).

Contrast that with explicitly authorizing PornHub to withdraw from your account at their discretion, as is the case when you're giving them your account/routing number on a web form. That info then gets stored in some database.

And no, I don't give utility companies or landlords or what have you such authorization, either. I mail them a check (thereby not giving them cause to store the account info long-term and not giving them consent to auto-withdraw), or I use a credit or debit card (which I can dispute or change far more easily than I can a bank account). If they accepted cryptocurrencies, then I'd pick that over either of those options.

you completely ignored the question lol

we know that you know, and that we know, but the comment was saying that most people don't.

No, I directly addressed the question: it's common sense, i.e. entirely independent of tech-savviness or age or other factors. It's indeed common sense passed down to me from people far less tech-savvy (and far older) than myself.

I would trust them a lot more than your average consumer fintech. They have been around for a long time and their engineering is nothing to be sniffed at.

> I would trust them a lot more than your average consumer fintech.

That bar is so low I couldn't even trip over it.

Why not? They're a far more reputable business than many online stores, for example.

They are also a far more interesting target because of their size. Imagine downloading all customer information of paying pornhub clients. Assume it holds basic information (name, address, email, payment info), and not any usage data.

I could use that data to extort at least 10% of those people easily (religious people, celebrities, politicians, etc). This is disregarding the price that I'd get for just leaking the other 90%.

Now imagine the fallout of somebody downloading the same info for a local brewery, a big tech company like Atlassian, a household brand like Staples, or even great big Amazon.

The fewer databases storing my banking info, the better.

They're a massive company with a strong and empowered engineering department.

You're right that BTC has a floor because there's some economy behind it. I'd say in the 100USD-1000USD/coin range.

I’ll sell you that contract up to what I can finance it at.

You completely ignored what GP said.

The floor is different from what people will sell it to you for right now.

AMZN may have a floor of $ASSETS / #SHARES (or something, I just made that up), but that doesn't mean anyone will sell it to you for that right now.

Anyone can invent quasi-financial terms to make grandiose claims. The beauty of the market is that loudmouths don’t participate in the market for long.

I’ll sell an American-style options contract to someone who thinks BTC is going anywhere near there at Black-Scholes -75. And I’ll have no trouble financing it.

You want the other side?

Shh.. you're scaring all the people who think their computer science degree gives them exceptional insight into how money works.

In fairness, I was one of those people until I landed at a satellite office of my SV company in New York and started hanging out with real finance players.

Not the person you are responding to, but is there somewhere reputable offering these kinds of contracts to no-name retail investors like myself? I would absolutely load up on something like 12,000 - 15,000 USD bitcoin puts depending on the time decay people are offering and how certain I could be that they would actually let me exercise them, and not freeze trading or even go belly up during the crash. I am somewhat.. skeptical I will be able to exercise them on an primarily crypto exchange like Binance that has blocked trading during freefalls before that is structurally dependent on the price of crypto to some extent.

Depends on the size. At retail size counterparty risk of e.g. Binance or FTX is a talking point, not a legitimate concern.

If you want to take a big position, talk to someone like Wintermute who has a big OTC desk, or if you want a better deal, find a friend of a friend. Someone you know knows a whale.

I mean, my use of belly up is definitely hyperbole. But, that the position of say, 12,000 usd per coin expiring in December is a huge enough dip from current prices that it is likely to come true only in the event of a large crash, and during the last crash Binance froze withdrawals and there was a large backlog of “stuck” transactions on the blockchain. I don’t know how these options execute but if I have to move bitcoin on the blockchain to unwind the position I would be afraid of being able to actually unwind it at the most favorable price in a time window, making the risk actually higher than typical models. Or maybe I dont know what I am talking about and Binance options wouldn’t need to actually move coins on the chain to close out the position?

In the US, LedgerX[1] (now owned by FTX) is a reputable, regulated exchange. The longest-dated put I see for $15k is EOY 2022 and is trading at a spread of $2000-8000.

You can buy puts at the $25k strike dated June 2023 for $4300-4800.

[1] https://app.ledgerx.com/btc There was a link that doesn't require login but I forgot it.

I don’t know if SBF and I would ever get along personally, but you have to agree that the M&A strategy has been superb.

As well as it needs to be when you’re up against Yi He, that chick gives Bill Gates nightmares: she’s a fucking force of nature.

Did you mean to post that somewhere else? I’m not sure anything there relates to my comment.

> I don’t know if SBF and I would ever get along personally

Are your court shoes laced?

Thank you, this could be exactly what I was looking for, I will look into this.

Glad to help! Late correction, though, I think I was reading the call side by accident, some of the puts are a lot cheaper.

EOY 2022 $15k strike: $1700-2000

EOY 2022 $10k strike: $700-950

June 2023 $25k strike: $7400-7900

There are dozens of dApps where anyone with an internet connection and money can buy/sell puts and other options on BTC anonymously.

They have full openly auditable reserves and all their code is open source and visible on their respective smartchains. Wanting an institution to provide a sub-par solution for this is a cop-out. Put up or shut-up.

With a centralized service I don’t need a law degree, I can quickly ask an expert what my rights are and understand an option, and there is a (limited and slow, but existant) method to make myself whole in the event of a problem. Each dApp is its own special setup and it can be quite complicated to figure out exactly how it behaves, who to sue if it doesn’t, and who to pay money to find these things out for me. I hope you’ll forgive me for being worried about trusting that with any significant sum of money.

Stop outsourcing protecting yourself.

No man is an island. I’d rather pay taxes for police and hire a plumber than live in the woods with a rifle and fetch my own water, given that there are only so many hours in a day to try and be an expert on everything.

Ah, but the Randian elite is not concerned with such. Obviously the Galts of the world will have services, they’ll pay for them by running monetary policy as well as Greenspan did.

Also, not to pile on, but GP said 100-1000USD BTC. I’ll sell puts at that until my Saudi buds run out of money to lend me.

You’re talking 12k-15k, which is a much more interesting options chain.

Right, I’ve learned the hard way that if my models are that out of line with the market then my models are wrong in ways that will cost me a lot of money. Satoshi himself could reveal to me the future price of bitcoin is intrinsically around $1,000 USD as a little understood fact of how the blockchain works, and I still wouldn’t trade on that today with prices where they are. Even a instantaneous divine revelation from God to all mankind would take a long time to propagate through the markets and you would lose your money in the meantime.

I don’t know whether or not you’ve studied economics or financial mathematics, but you’ve concisely and concretely identified something called the Weak-Form Efficient Market Hypothesis.

Maybe you already knew that, but if not you’re a natural.

I'm pretty bullish crypto but I think there's a chance Bitcoin hits $1000 again in the next 10 years or so.. mainly because I think the case for Ethereum is much better.

I don't understand what Black-Scholes means, but if you're willing to take 10 to 1 odds in my favour I'll draw up a smart contract: we both deposit USDC and receive tokens for our position which can be resold if desired; if bitcoin hits $1000 or less according to the Chainlink BTC_USD oracle at any point between now and 10 years from now, I get 10 USDC for every one of mine wagered

I don't think "is this where the price is going" really has anything to do with what gp was even saying.

You're selling puts on BTC struck at 1000 at a discount? Yes, I'll take a few.

I said 75 bps off what Black Scholes kicks out, gets a little weird with the thin market, and the expiration has to make sense, but in general, fuck yes?

You think BTC is going to drop like 20x in a sane options duration?

I think a lot of people would sell you that.

It's like any other investment option, in that it's basically a legalized bet with contract language enforcing it.

That’s just the sort of definition of Floor that leads to internet breaking production outages.

Thank you.

Happy to buy btc for $1000 of you!!

   In some niches, BTC is used a lot.

I think that’s GPs point: the economic transition volume is just so low that it doesn’t have much value (relative to government currency).

The value if BTC is primarily driven by day-trader hype, IMHO.

Pornhub runs ads.