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I have tried to get a biologist / someone with more scientific knowledge than me to either help peer review, confirm or debunk this paper by Steven Quay:

https://zenodo.org/record/4642956

It seems so scientific and created a buzz when it came out, it has been the most thorough explanation of the lab leak theory, but I never saw a decent discussion that either helped confirm or debunk the ideas within.

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I think it's kind of rubbish but 140 pages long and most serious scientist have better things to do than going through all that.

But at a glance he seems to be using bayesian analysis in a not very valid way.

Plenty of people have been through and debunked it. Quay is an unqualified kook (eat broccoli and brush your teeth to avoid Covid!) who was specifically chosen to make the argument for lab leak. It's no way to do science and it's as useful as you'd expect for a physician performing their first bayesian analysis on a topic that they aren't familiar with.

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