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Comment by rinze | Hacker News Reader

Still $18,300 to go. Getting closer, at least.

I'm a huge bear, but thinking its going to zero is crazy. Even beanie babies retain some value. And crypto still has utility as a transaction medium for illicit exchanges.

Crypto still has value, but bitcoin itself has shown little value in any of the things it's supposed to be a solution for. It's not really that decentralised (in as far as most people trade through exchanges, and the miners have pooled their power to elicit control), the transaction fees are too high to be good for commerce, it's too volatile to be a store of money, and it's not anonymous enough to be used on illicit markets (the majority of them have moved to Monero). In my opinion, for crypto to flourish bitcoin needs to die.

That said, I also don't believe it will go to zero because there's one thing it's great at.. speculation. It's an ingenious bit of technology that the general public doesn't really understand and so the greater fool theory will continue to prove true.

I think 0 is eventual end result. Unlike beanie babies or sports card. The operating costs of bitcoin is rather high. You can throw those in a box and then leave it at back of cupboard... But to do anything with bitcoin you need a network.

You know, this is actually raises a good point. If the marginal cost of producing Bitcoin exceeds the sale price, Bitcoin is toast and one of the proof of stake coins will win out.

The difficulty of mining blocks is a self-adjustable value. It will go down once the number of participants drops, making it profitable again.

Though at that point a network attack becomes very feasible. There will be a lot of asics for sale….

https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf

"Comment 1: Why BTC is worth exactly

Gold and other precious metals are largely maintenance free, do not degrade over an historical horizon, and do not require maintenance to refresh their physical properties over time.

Cryptocurrencies require a sustained amount of inter- est in them"

In Russia 200 years ago the was a spike in interests in platinum. Gold melts at temperature of wooden house fire and substantial amount of it was lost this way. Platinum melts at much higher point.

That's a good point. What if enough miners quit such that suddenly one of the big mining groups gets a majority?

Beanie Babies actually exist IRL.

Yep, as did tulips. And tulips smell good and look pretty! That's more than Bitcoin can say.

There is unfortunately a fair amount of intrinsic exchange value in its use for illegal trades (drugs, CP, etc.) and tax evasion. So it won't ever drop to 0.

Unless governments actually start to do their job and stop all transactions to the fiat-crypto exchanges. They are literally being used to bypass international sanctions and fund all sorts of trafficking and cartels.

Bitcoin is here to stay. You're mixing up shitcoins and other ponzi-like schemes.

As with any new & emerging technology, blockchain ecosystem hosts various (intentional or unintentional) FUD and malicious coins that are backed by nothing and often run in a ponzi scheme manner. These coins will eventually crash and disappear.

Bitcoin's intrinsic values are similar to other asset classes, plus, its also decentralized and censorship resistant.

Nothing wrong with Bitcoin itself but the rampant speculation is what draws the proponents and critics alike.

If Bitcoin just worked like a peer-to-peer neutral currency and had no speculative element, most people would have no issue with it.

The annoying element is when it is used as a get-rich quick pyramid scheme.

I'm really curious why that annoys you? As I mentioned earlier, almost any emerging technology will go through period of instability, and with bitcoin and its speculative nature this is certainly the case. And there are people that are ready to ride that wave.

I like the sound of "this time it's different" from the bitcoin doomsayers.

This is the first time since inception it has traded below its previous bull market high.

This time is different.

It is different, it’s bitcoin’s first recession. The “ultrahard” currency has always depended on cheap money to grow, especially from Tether

Thanks for your work :).

Lots of support in $11-$12k range. Be hard to break that.

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