People bought luna 2.0 within days of the collapse of luna 1.0 - check
But at the same time it's disgusting the current state of the crypto wars. All that is happening is due to greed. People are greedy, crypto "companies " are greedy and everyone wants to become rich without effort. There are VERY few projects that really want to develop technology. And those are also hijacked by greedy people to play as casinos.
I really wish the crypto space would crash and burn, BTC to hobdown to $100 and similar, so that all that noise goes out, and people go back to scam penny stocks or Amway, and leave the development of blockchain technology alone.
I remember when Wikileaks started accepting bitcoin. Satoshi very well mentioned that it was not ready. I am sure he was surprised by the craziness that came of it. Becoming exactly the thing that it was supposed to fight against.
As far as underlying value goes: one thing we've learned from the constant scamming is that a protocol designed for trustless interactions will inevitably devolve into purely adversial interactions. Consider it a social application of Gresham's law. Central banks, multinational corporations, and others who can marshal the resources to perform extensive audits will probably use smart contracts on a proof-of-stake chain for large, adversarial transactions that occur outside of any one nation's jurisdiction. Everything else will continue to be based on trust, just like it always has been.
Arbitration at the highest echelons of power is done with weapons. I don’t give a shit about what your blockchain says when I can force you to the negotiating table Commodore Perry style.
True, there is an implicit threat of violence when parties interact at that level. But there is also a hope on both sides that if all the rules are followed, violence will not be necessary even if one party gets the better of the other. E.g., the central banks of unfriendly nations transact with one another according to international norms and rules, even though either side could escalate to "kinetic" reprisals. The force of norms and rules is strongest between parties with balanced power (otherwise the stronger side can just pull a Commodore Perry like you say).
No. The crypto/scam space will be back because people love to gamble and love the concept of easy money.
> Do you think the whole space is a fad or do you think there are patches of values underneath the froth?
There is crypto/scam space and there is Bitcoin/Monero space. The actual decentralized cryptocurrencies are widely used where fiat system fails, like on DNMs.
My approach is to stay away until the fad dies, and then look to see if any part of it is useful to me. The last time I made a serious evaluation of something in that space was Bitcoin; it didn't serve any use case I had; but maybe there's been some innovation in the space that is hard to find behind the fad hype.
I think eventually bitcoin fills the same space as "no programming knowledge required coding tools". Every few years it'll spike as this time they know went wrong the last time. And then the inevitable happens.
Unless governments step in and ban them, there will always be new crypto scams.
It's notable that classical Ponzi schemes come back in the real world from time to time; they just need a very light reskin, and people buy in again. Plausible that the same happens with crypto to some extent.
Same as MLM/Hype evolved to Crypto/NFT. Some new pyramid will come in place for the next generation.
Do I hope this will be the cycle though? Oh absolutely.
Even with the market as is, today it’s still a trillion dollar industry.
History is rife with hundred-billion dollar industries destroyed in very short periods of time, across multitudes of field types.
For example, i've watched fields created by single legal opinions, grow to many billions, and then get destroyed overnight by a different legal opinion. All in the course of 10-15 years.
The amount of money in it is just not a sufficient condition for it to stick around. It certainly helps, mind you, but there will always be somewhere else to put the trillion dollars.
Otherwise, as is, your response to me is without merit.
While still kind of alive (mostly legacy lawsuits), the vast majority of the value was rapidly killed off post supreme court decisions (and AIA)
This kind of thing happens all the time - in software, in pharma, in ...
As I said, value helps in some sense, but just because there is a lot of money in a thing simply does not mean it will remain.
FWIW - your comment very much comes off as the typical "crypto folks ignore roughly all history" stereotype that it gets painted with -
None examples so far have provided independently source of valuing industries claimed, nor to my knowledge have any of the industries cited have as many direct customers.
Feel free to provide specific (and comparable) examples.
To be clear, just trying to be objective. For example, NFTs alone for living artist easily surpassed the billion made in non-NFT sales for living artist; sure NFTs were 30-40% behind in total volume, but that’s largely for dead artists.
Further, you keep bring up legal changes, but I am not aware of any pending legal matters that might have a substantial impact on the use of the technology itself; further, crypto is global and clearly adapted to legal changes including all out bans in China.
I'm not going to continue this, because you are definitely one of these folks who seem to believe crypto is unique in value and capability, that somehow make it not capable of failing (but can't explain why other than "when you add up all the theoretical money involved in tons of distinct markets and uses that somehow relate to crypto it's a lot"). This is IMHO distinct failure of objectivity and imagination.
The entire stock market failed enough in a single day to wipe entire economic segments out and then continued to die - 2 day loss = 25%, 3 year loss = 89%. Eighty nine percent.
It's so amazingly naive to believe that in the thousands of years of human history that nothing like crypto has happened, that large scale markets on the same order of magnitude of crypto markets have not failed, etc, that i don't even know where to begin. Then going further and just asserting anyone who starts to provide you examples is wrong/incomparable without even a single sentence that backs up why, makes this a pointless conversation.
You don't want to understand, you want to win.
Have a good one.
Further, you clearly did read the OP comment, which said the “whole crypto space” — so no, I don’t believe me responding to that as the scope is off-topic, changing the scope, etc.; I didn’t even include cryptography, which is obviously part of the space, worth $10 of trillion and used 7.26 Billion or making up 91.54% of the world's population; every phone uses cryptography.
Next, lol, money is obviously real, claim it’s not is funny at best, not even worth responding too; obviously not worth the 10s of trillions the public equity market is worth, but again, no example you’ve supplied came close to even 10 billion; reminder that trillion divided by billion is 1000, even at 100 billion, that still 10x larger; even at 10 billion, that would be like comparing industry making $1 a year to one that makes $100.
No idea what the whole 89% of the stock market point means; either literally, or as it relates to the topic.
Cheers.
Obviously the tech is part of the “whole space” and not a fade; didn’t even bring up encryption, which is the fundamental core of crypto. Sure encryption might be ban, but if you think governments will apply that to themselves, that’s obviously not a common or reasonable position.