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> did the government accurately predict the cost of the rules / red tape itself?

Depending on the level of government involved: probably.

Economic analysis of laws/regulations are common requirements for governmental activity. As are after-the-fact analysis and comparisons to ensure a law/regulation is achieving its goal. It's part of the red-tape-for-red-tape system.

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Can you offer examples at different levels of government where red tape accurately predicted the cost of the red tape? Not hypotheticals, but actual rules.

An adjacent question is when governments predict the cost of a particular program. I always say when that occurs their prediction is actually a floor and the program is going to actually cost prediction+.

A good example is upcoming regulation in California for emissions from small commercial vessels. California new oh well that this will simply put many charter fishing boats out of business because Engine upgrades don't exist for mini boats or vastly exceed their revenues

Fire escapes.

We know how much extra it costs to add a stairwell to a building design which will survive a fire for the period of time defined by building regulations.

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