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Comment by pclmulqdq | Hacker News Reader

It hasn't found its bottom yet. Bitcoin tends to have these cycles every ~5 years where it goes up by 5x and then drops to below its previous high.

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Bitcoin was created in 2009. There are not enough data points to make a reliable prediction that it will go up again. This time a lot more people have had time to think if bitcoin and crypto are going to work at all. Also, there might not be enough new people after this cycle to join in the frenzy and bring the price back up. We might very well be at the end of the pyramid.

The interest rates were low during the entire existence of bitcoin + QE for the same period.

We don't know bitcoin and the rest of the crypto currencies will react to higher interest rates.

I heartily want to agree with you but from personal experience, I heard this exact same theory at the end of 2020 right when BTC hit $40k.

"How many more fools could there be? Don't they see it's a ponzi scheme?"

Then we hit $64k afterwards. I truly hope it's the end, for the sake of the environment.

If this is the end of the pyramid scheme, then thank goodness.

There is some legit usage for blockchain technology. Like Internet based distributed & encrypted storage (erasure coding FTW). Beyond that, I don't know.

The complete bullish thesis is still in tact. In fact, the thesis is as strong as it ever has been. Nothing has changed but the price.

> drops to below its previous high

Doesn't check out. Bitcoin's last cycle (bubble) started in 2016 when the price was around $400, went to $20,000 in December 2017, and then down to $3,000. The high previous to that was in December 2013, when the price was $1,000. Obviously, $3,000 > $1,000, even adjusting for inflation. So the low point of the previous bubble was higher than the high point of the one before that.

Adjusting for inflation, BTC today went below its December 2017 price. So the low point of the current bubble is lower than the high point of the previous bubble, which appears to be a new occurrence. Today's low point was $20.1K, which in 2017 dollars would be $17.3K, which is less than 2017's peak value of $20K. The theory that you will profit by holding BTC for at least 4 years is busted.

For a BTC price chart on a log scale, look here: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-logarithmic-g...

For adjusting for inflation, look here: https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2018?amount=17600...

That kind of reasoning only makes sense if any of the exchanges are driven by actual exchanges of goods or services rather than just speculation. It's unconnected to physical commodities just like fiat currency, controlled by an unaccountable small group of miners and whales, and becomes completely centralized the moment you go through an exchange. How stupid.

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