Fun fact, a lot of those CDOs were on bank's balance sheets and marked down during the crisis but recovered over the last ten years. Not recovered to par, but recovered significantly. So there still exists some trading in the asset and banks still hold a fair chunk of it. So what traders do is they steadily mark up the valuation of these assets to smooth out and boost their P&L, which affects their bonus (which is often times already in the millions). There's a treasure trove of interesting content in this lawsuit from a BAML managing director that sued for discrimination because her total comp was only 2 - 2.5 million a year. [0]
> Until recently, the secondary trading desk owned, along with CLO’s, $4 Billion on the BAML balance sheet of TruPS CDOs and ABS CDOs which positions were acquired during the 2008/2009 time frame. These positions have been mismarked for years in order to ensure P&L every year. Trepanier and his traders have daily fights about marks (where the bonds are priced) with Pricing (another department who marks the Bank’s securities to the market price). When going through their business after being promoted, Messina asked Trepanier about the marks he had on the Bank’s trading positions. Trepanier boldly responded, “It is an annuity so that the trading book produces revenue every year.”
[0] https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rCaslipP...
Prices per se are almost never meaningful.
Most crypto purchases are underwater [1]. (This is almost always true when something traded grows in value and buyers before crashing.) Many participants are leveraged. Financially, or operationally due to the cost of their mining rigs and long-term energy contracts.
There are also vagaries specific to PoW. For example, a steep enough decline between difficulty adjustments could make mining fundamentally unprofitable, which has its own suite of knock-on effects.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-14/bitcoin-r...
That's what is "fair".
Otherwise we need to speak about "intrinsic value". And there's really no intrinsic value in Bitcoin, money doesn't have an "intrinsic value" against something else.
And if you want to argue that "but the technology!", then what can we talk about? Bitcoin's code is open source, if we launch our own coin does it have intrinsic value as well? Can we create endless new blockchains and create value out of thin air?
This is why I don't believe Bitcoin has a "fair" price, to have it, it would need to have a value and then the loop begins again.
https://www.coinfairvalue.com/coins/bitcoin/
> What do you mean by "fair value"?
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pablomp/cryptocurrencies-what-i...
CME? The same place I can bet up or down on soybeans next year?
Either way, you're fucked. Buy property I guess...?